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金融危机简史：2000年来的投机、狂热与崩溃

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金融危机简史：2000年来的投机、狂热与崩溃

Name: 金融危机简史：2000年来的投机、狂热与崩溃
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3111005521
Price: 43.34 USD
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聪明和愚蠢往往是同一枚硬币的两面，之间只隔了薄薄的一层东西——时间。

乐观、自大、贪婪、恐惧、屈服等市场情绪永不停歇地围着信心之火跳舞，而金钱只是这支舞蹈的别名。

2000年的金融泡沫、投资狂热、人类蠢行，且听内行人娓娓道来

公元前4世纪古希腊银行业救助、罗马帝国崩溃、荷兰郁金香狂热、19世纪自行车与铁路泡沫、20世纪30年代大萧条、日本泡沫经济、网络空间虚拟银行挤兑……本书透过这些现象，揭示深层的人性原因，为什么金融危机此起彼伏，为什么人们总在重蹈覆辙？

《金融危机简史》将为你追本溯源：我们的理性反复为新的投资机遇所蛊惑；耽于稳操胜券的幻想，个人卷入群体狂热；资本过剩推动永不停歇、蒸蒸日上的经济繁荣；我们从未理解金融体系的复杂性，直到为时已晚；皇帝的新装被意外揭穿；市场崩溃难以避免，投资者蜂拥离场，以求自保；以及短暂的金融记忆致使我们重蹈覆辙却不反躬自省。简言之，这是关于人性的故事。

Content Description

金融危机之于今人，恰如自然灾难之于古人，因无法预测、破坏力巨大而蒙上了神秘面纱，每一代人都愿意将自己遇到的灾难视为“前所未有”。但事实上，人性，这个令繁荣与萧条更替的驱动因素却亘古不变，2000年来形形色色的金融危机实有规律可寻。
《金融危机简史：2000年来的投机、狂热与崩溃》一书简明生动地讲述了自古罗马时代至今的数轮金融泡沫及其后果。作者鲍勃·斯瓦鲁普既是一名深受欢迎的评论家，也是一名经验丰富的投资管理人，他的这本书跳脱出年代顺序，围绕人类的劣根性，鞭辟入里地审视了周而复始的投机狂热与自我破坏。
作者质疑人类防范崩盘的努力是否恰恰导致了更大的灾难，进而提问：如果崩盘发生得更频繁，那么人类会不会过得更好？繁荣与萧条归根结底是由人造成的，现在也许是直面现实的时候了。

Author Description

鲍勃·斯瓦卢普（Bob Swarup），金融市场及金融监管问题的国际专家、评论家。他1977年出生于新德里，在印度和英格兰接受教育，获得剑桥大学文学硕士学位和伦敦帝国理工大学宇宙学博士学位。他曾供职于金融机构并负责投资管理，为一流对冲基金和私募股权基金提供咨询，与各智囊团合作密切，为政策制定者担任顾问。他现与妻子及两个孩子生活在伦敦。

Catalogue

译者序
第一部分似曾相识
第1章世人、金钱、狂热 // 2
第2章解构咕噜牛：罗马的故事 // 23
第3章世事无常：重新定义经济学 // 57
第4章自我与欣快：日本的故事 // 69
第二部分人：欲火中烧
第5章通向纽纳姆之路：理性的边界 // 84
第6章雅努斯神庙：时间、记忆和不确定性 // 93
第7章更大的傻瓜：庞氏骗局 // 120
第8章一起来发狂：群体、证实、信心 // 130
第三部分金钱：外在的催化剂
第9章人与钱：银行挤兑 // 148
第10章负债人生：信用与货币 // 157
第11章那些华丽夺目的东西：郁金香狂热 // 170
第四部分纷繁复杂：危机炼金术
第12章普遍真理：有关范式的题外话 // 188
第13章物以类聚：资本主义的生态 // 197
第14章众多小决策酿成的悲剧：大萧条 // 214
第五部分结论：揭开面纱
第15章希腊人的礼物：一场悲喜剧 // 244
第16章从头至尾：2000年来的历次危机 // 248
第17章盲人的世界：上下求索 // 262
致谢 // 273
注释 // 275

Introduction

中国有句老话：“以古为鉴，可知兴替；以人为鉴，可明得失。”对于金融泡沫，我们同样需要以古为鉴、以人为鉴，本书就提供了这方面的丰富素材与深入思考。
这是一本关于金融投机及其后果的史书。它为你追本溯源、条分缕析，展示了上自古罗马时代、下至次贷危机的历次金融泡沫，叙事横跨2000多年，学科涵盖经济学、金融学、心理学乃至宇宙物理学，讲述的故事发生在西至欧美、东至日本的广阔大陆与海洋上，乃至互联网上的虚拟空间里，令人大开眼界。
金融泡沫及其破灭后的危机并非新鲜事物，它们已存在了数个世纪，并以惊人的频率反复上演。据估计，仅在西欧的过去400年间，平均每十年就发生一次。历次泡沫与危机的呈现形式各不相同，但正如本书作者所言：“空气或者金钱，那并不重要，它们只是同一部原始戏剧在不同层面上演时的不同舞台背景。”表面上，泡沫多种多样，每个国家都有自己的危机故事，每个故事都与众不同。但不管炒作的对象是郁金香还是房地产，甚至网上的虚拟房地产，似乎泡沫的形成与膨胀所需的只是人和一种媒介—无论被称为什么的货币。从古希腊和古罗马的金融救助，到17世纪郁金香狂热时期的蠢行，再到21世纪人们的现代经历，同样的模式在金融危机中反复上演。泡沫背后的规律是一以贯之的，可以探究，也应当探究。
人类易变的情绪加上充裕的金钱，似乎能在任何情况下制造出繁荣、泡沫以及随后的危机。本书作者指出：“在一个脆弱的金融体系中，繁荣和萧条此消彼长，乐观、自大、贪婪、恐惧、屈服等市场情绪永不停歇地围着信心之火跳舞，而金钱只是这支舞蹈的别名。”泡沫产生自个人的心理，由环境中的激励机制滋养，在复杂的经济体中逐渐膨胀。即使泡沫破灭了，这些因素也依然存在。
人贵在学习，但仍无力阻止历史的重复。每次危机过后，人们为解释危机抛出诸多观点，从公司治理不善到透明度不足，再到监管不力，众说纷纭。可是千百年来，泡沫与危机依然循环往复，无论什么理论或模型，即使能完美地解释上一次危机，也无法阻止下一次危机的发生。经济繁荣期炒作的工具—股票、郁金香、衍生品、抵押贷款等，被监管审查、妖魔化，最后又被纳入正轨，但这些工具的使用者，也就是人，及他们的社会动机却未被深入剖析。直到今天，见多识广的人类仍在一轮轮繁荣与萧条的周期中挣扎，下一个泡沫及其破灭后的危机仍在所难免。
其实，我们过去、现在和未来所有危机的根源在于人性。我们都痴迷于积累财富。数千年来驱动着我们的心理机制从未改变，人类的从众心理自然而然地催生出投机性繁荣。我们所谓的理性为经验、情感和环境所左右。我们信他人，随大流，目光短浅，盲目乐观。我们的集体情绪与行为随着时间起伏涨落，造成周期性的繁荣与萧条。归根结底，经济萧条是诸多小决策叠加所导致的悲剧，泡沫诞生于个人的心智中，受环境的刺激而膨胀，于经济的复杂性中趋于成熟，泡沫的后果也由这些因素决定。只有了解人性、抑制狂热，才能避免系统性的投机风险，进而避免危机。
那么，人类该怎样避免危机·约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯主张，在严重经济困难时期，政府应该介入以缓解经济危机，通过降息和增加基础设施等领域的开支来维持经济运行并尽力遏制下行趋势。本·伯南克则认为，政府可以通过印钞这种简单的增发货币手段来战胜通缩。而早在2000多年前，屋大维就采用过今天的经济学家提倡的某些措施来重建受损的经济。现在，本书作者借审视历次泡沫与危机之机，提出了自己的解决之道，涵盖了制度设计、激励机制、行业引导、监管角色、政策选择、社会平等、价值观念等方面，颇具参考价值。
本书作者鲍勃·斯瓦卢普是金融市场及金融监管问题的专家，持有剑桥大学文学硕士学位和伦敦帝国理工大学宇宙学博士学位，曾供职于金融机构并负责投资管理，有广阔的知识面、扎实的理论基础和丰富的金融从业经历。本书译者万娟、童伟华、叶青，是中国平安集团的资深翻译，专注于金融翻译、法律翻译等领域。鉴于译者才疏学浅，若您对本书的翻译有任何意见，请发邮件与我们联系，我们期待您的宝贵意见。
祝您阅读愉快，收获新知！
万娟童伟华叶青

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