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KingStone

【繁體】為什麼出布容易贏?從球賽、股市到選擇題,在未知中輕鬆致勝的22個預測練習

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【繁體】為什麼出布容易贏?從球賽、股市到選擇題,在未知中輕鬆致勝的22個預測練習

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内容簡介

《如何移動富士山》暢銷科普作家全新力作──
掌握隨機性,就是掌握自己的命運!
識破這些數字陷阱,
輕鬆「算」出下次行動的最佳解!


無論簽樂透、買股票或是上考場,
日常生活都會面臨眾多無法預測的情境,
本書告訴你如何做出獲勝機率最高的選擇,
在未知當中出奇致勝!

●拍賣公司佳士得(Christie’s)靠猜拳,贏得價值190萬美元的收藏品,
究竟剪刀、石頭還是布,是獲勝最安全的選擇?

●企業靠著大數據預測我們喜歡什麼、何時購物、甚至經常出沒的地區,
我們又如何預測企業的下一波優惠何時出現?

●對手可以靠著觀察,看透我們下次發球的球路,
但是「手錶」居然可以幫助我們迷惑對手?

●報假帳、逃漏稅與選舉做票,這些人為捏造的數字都有跡可循,
「班佛定律」如何讓這些詭計通通曝光?

●越冷門的數字越好,不受歡迎的數字最受歡迎,
樂透彩要怎麼選號,才能讓你一人獨得,不用與他人平分彩金?

日常生活的每一個情境,都是一場預測競賽,
搶先識破下一個趨勢、下一波低價、下一個對手的行動,
就能做出最精準的決定,
然而這些預測絕非憑空臆測或瞎碰運氣,
而是可以從機率當中看出玄機!
本書即將揭露在未知中輕鬆致勝的預測祕訣。

目錄

前言 機器真的能預測人類選擇嗎?

01 如何識破「看似隨機」的選擇?
──我們自認亂挑的數字,竟然也有某種規則

02 如何在猜拳遊戲中看透對手的下一步?
──如果只有一次機會,出布真的最容易贏

03 如何看透選擇題答案的玄機?
──「以上皆___」會是你的好朋友

04 如何看透樂透彩選號的奧祕?
──不受歡迎的選擇最受歡迎

05 如何在網球比賽中智取對手?

內容試閱

18 如何對大數據進行「反預測」?
──別讓瀏覽器與來電顯示出賣了你

預測分析是從看似乎無關的資訊中,試圖取得預測和獲利的一項技術。這項技術暗地裡不斷生產資料,推測安非他命實驗室和武力劫奪汽車的地點,估算顧客價值、員工價值和主管價值,而且最重要的是,預測誰會買什麼和會付多少錢。
  
大數據充分利用本身無形的間諜技術,消費者很少懷疑自己的行為有多少會被追查和猜透。預測不是完美的(至少目前還不是)。而且,就像當初克勞德‧夏農(Claude Shannon)可以猜透自己的預測機,你也可以智勝大數據。本章將說明一些更廣泛應用的手法。
  
你可能接過手機業者、有線電視業者或健身中心打來的奇怪電話,來電者詢問是否能對你提供更好的服務,而且還讓你覺得不太友善。你會接到這通電話,表示業者利用演算法預測,你有可能「流失」(churn,取消服務)。
  
顧客一旦下定決心要取消服務,就很難勸阻。所以,預測分析用於推測哪些顧客會取消服務,而且是早在顧客自己知道想取消服務前,業者就先預知。
  
每次你上健身房時會刷會員卡,因此演算法知道你最近比較少上健身房,也知道你所屬人口統計群體中,減少上健身房次數者有多常取消會員資格。
  
另外,你採用的手機服務業者根據你的資料用量就知道,你已經接受對手提供的更優惠方案,他們也知道對手正推出一個大規模的廣告宣傳活動。

不要答應客服的優惠提案
  
由於預測並不是百分之百確定的事,因此這種客服電話通常是從閒聊打開話匣子。客服人員照章行事,想套出你是否自願說出任何不滿。要是客服人員判斷預測錯誤,認為你是一位對服務滿意的顧客,就會結束通話。
  
否則,客服人員會提供初步優惠方案,幫你打折或提供贈品,說服你接受新合約。記住,千萬不要接受一開始的提議。一旦你拒絕,客服人員就會提出第二個提議。因為一切都是照稿宣讀,有時第二個提議比較優惠,有時只是內容不同。你或許想兩個提議都聽聽看。反正這樣也無妨,就算你比較喜歡第一個提議,還是可以跟客服人員表明。更好的策略是,拒絕客服人員的所有提議。先等幾天,再打電話去取消服務。(就算你打算保留服務,也要這麼做。)你會發現,有時候當顧客主動取消服務時,業者會提供更優惠的方案。這時,你一樣拒絕對方的第一個提議,聽聽後續提議的內容。假如你想保留服務,那就比較一下,接受最優惠的方案。

不用自家電話撥號,以免立即被探清底細
  
下次你跟客服人員交談時,不妨推敲一下這個想法。你的電話是否被接通,有時是由身為顧客的你,能讓業者有多少賺頭來做決定。這個術語就是每用戶平均貢獻度(Average Revenue Per Use,ARPU)。對大數據來說,我們消費者都只是砧板上的肉,任由業者擺布罷了。
  
客服中心利用來電顯示過濾號碼,就像有些通靈諮詢熱線一樣。其實,現在你可以在Google網站輸入電話號碼,就能知道電話使用者姓名和地址。再多搜尋一、二次,就能得到更多資訊。騙人的靈媒就利用這些資訊,讓人受騙上當,以為他們多有神通廣大。大數據則另有他法。
  
Neustar資訊服務公司(Neustar Information Services)是位於維吉尼亞州郊區的一家資料公司,專精於提供「即時消費者洞見」。有人打電話給Neustar的客戶珍妮‧克雷格(Jenny Craig)瘦身中心時,演算法就能「精準定位來電者的位置」。演算法還能判別來電者是使用手機或市話,也能查出所用電話號碼的郵件地址。Neustar能馬上計算出顧客貢獻度。其軟體能預測來電者是否符合申請信用卡的可能性。當可能性很高時,客服人員就會馬上跟來電者通話。至於那些被認定是賴帳者,打電話到滿線的客服中心時,肯定無法與客服人員通上話。
  
下次你想打電話找人談事情,電話卻沒人接聽時,你可以先掛掉電話,改用Google Voice這類網路電話服務。這樣的話,軟體看到的是你所用的網路電話號碼,不是你常用的手機或市話的號碼。或許,這樣做還是沒幫助,但有時候還是有幫助。電話號碼通常比較適用於淘汰「沒有貢獻度的」顧客,而不是找出有貢獻度的顧客。eBureau這家消費者分析機構創辦人戈迪‧梅爾(Gordy Meyer)就說:「知道誰是最底層的顧客,比知道誰是最頂層的顧客更重要。如果我們可以找出根本不可能購買的25%顧客,我們就可以跟業者說『別把你的錢浪費在他們身上。』」跟你常用的手機和市話相比,你用的網路電話號碼可能沒有牽涉到那麼多個人資訊。業者想要吸引新的顧客,所以他們不可能把不帶個人資訊的新號碼跟爛顧客混為一談。

當心「極端趨避」的陷阱
  
到星巴克(Starbucks)喝咖啡,在櫃台點餐時會看到三種不同份量的咖啡名稱,讓第一次上門的顧客一頭霧水:小杯、中杯和大杯。由於新顧客不知道自己點的究竟是什麼份量,所以通常會挑中間選項,也就是中杯。你猜怎樣?三種份量分別是12、16和20盎司(一盎司約為30毫升)。中杯是16盎司,你等於是點了二杯很貴的咖啡。
  
銷售數據的分析顯示,我們的選擇有多麼視狀況而定。顧客走進星巴克時,未必清楚自己想要喝多少份量的咖啡。因此,業者在顧客檢查電郵或跟店員點咖啡時,就想方設法刺激顧客消費。業者提供顧客三項選擇時,譬如:小、中、大,而顧客又認為三種選擇都可以時,通常顧客就會挑選中間選項。在行銷文獻中,這是所謂的「極端趨避」(extremeness aversion)。就像我們在魔術師請志願者挑選紙牌或咖啡杯時,人們總是挑中間而避開兩邊那樣。
  
在這種情況下,零售業者就是魔術師。零售業者以這種方式精心設計選項,好讓獲利最大化。通常,這表示讓中間選項比一般顧客會選擇的項目,份量大一些或價錢更貴一些。

這種迂迴招術在顧客對價格不敏感時最奏效,譬如在星巴克或蘋果專賣店時。目前,蘋果iPad有出不同儲存容量規格,譬如16、32、64和128GB(GB代表十億位元組)。而第二種選擇32GB一直賣得最好。這是因為顧客知道自己正好需要32GB的儲存容量嗎?不是,大多數顧客根本連自己筆電記憶體容量有多少都搞不清楚。他們只是挑選中間選項,因為他們不知道自己需要什麼。
  
每當你面對幾個選擇又不確定其中哪個選擇適合你時,你不妨上述狀況當成一個線索,認真思考挑選份量最少或價格最便宜的。低忠誠度可能為你帶來「差別定價」
  
大數據的最大野心或許是做到「差別定價」(differential pricing)。這表示依據預測個別顧客願意支付多少價格,來為個人定價。這樣講聽起來不公平也不像美式作風,而且又有點利用科技耍花招。
  
長久以來,在特定市場中,差別定價存在已久。度假人士會事先計畫,拿到較便宜的機票,但商務人士就做不到。折價券、回扣和會員卡就是其他例子。跟其他購物者相比,不嫌麻煩使用這些東西的購物者能多省一點錢。有些業內傳言談到,不久後刊登定價就會成為過去式。透過科技,顧客看到自己專屬的價格。
  
現在,我們已經開始看到這種情況的大概樣貌。最近,我在超市購物結帳時,收銀員就跟我建議,要我上網申請一個提供個人折扣優惠的新方案。這樣就不必帶折價券,只要利用智慧型手機下載應用程式。應用程式會依據你的購物記錄,提供折價清單。
  
什麼購物紀錄?你買過的每樣東西啊。你一直使用會員卡購物,對吧?只要你用到那張卡過卡,演算法就知道你買過的每樣東西。超市店員跟我推薦的新方案名為「專屬於你」,超市網站的問答網頁也列出一個相關問題。

問:為何我在店裡消費,你們不能直接提供我這些優惠價?

答:如果每位顧客都跟您一樣,我們當然可以這樣做!但事實是,本公司的每位顧客都不同,這方案是為您精心設計,專屬於你!

啊,原來如此。其實,更完整的回答是,業者正設法得知要提供多少優惠,才能讓你願意改變品牌。個人折扣應用程式涉及到價格操作,針對消費者平常不會購買的品牌或商品提供優惠,看看消費者是否會有回應。或許你家人喜歡家樂氏早餐穀物的脆米片(Rice Krispies),但你可能拿到店家自有品牌米穀片、家樂氏巧克力香脆麥片(Cocoa Krispies)或Kashi燕麥棒的優惠券。如果演算法得知某項產品有許多顧客都對品牌很忠誠,那麼業者更可能提高商品價格(或只提供優惠給那些可能改買較便宜品牌的消費者)。住在科羅拉多州的一位部落客艾蜜莉‧凡奈克(Emily Vanek)發現,她在喜互惠超市(Safeway)購買研磨咖啡時,可以偶爾買星巴克或偶而換買當肯甜甜圈(Dunkin’ Donuts),在轉換這兩個品牌時就能取得優惠。星巴克的研磨咖啡比較貴,凡奈克改買當肯甜甜圈的研磨咖啡時,就會被當成對價格敏感的購物者,因此讓她拿到星巴克研磨咖啡的優惠券。下次她買星巴克研磨咖啡時,演算法又帶出當肯甜甜圈研磨咖啡的折價券。這種情況顯然會無限期地持續下去。就像政治宣傳活動特別青睞那些騎牆派的少數選民,電子折價券也都送給那些可能頻頻更換品牌的買家。

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Brand Origin Taiwan
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Yami Consolidation Service Shipping Fee $9.99(Free shipping over $69)

Sellers in China will ship their orders within 1-2 business days once the order is placed. Packages are sent to our consolidation warehouse in China and combined there. Our Yami consolidation warehouse will directly ship the packages to you via UPS. The average time for UPS to ship from China to the United States is about 10 working days and it can be traced using the tracking number. Due to the pandemic, the delivery time may be delayed by about 5 days. The package needs to be signed by the guest. If the receipt is not signed, the customer shall bear the risk of loss of the package.

Sold by King Stone

Service Guarantee

Free shipping over 49
Genuine guarantee
Ship from Taiwan

Shipping

UPS Ground $11.99(Free shipping over $49)


Seller will ship the orders within 1-2 business days. It will not be shipped between April 7, 2019 and April 4, 2019. Orders during this time will begin shipping on April 8. Thanks for your cooperation.

Yami Points information

All items are excluding from any promotion or points events on Yamibuy.com

Return Policy

You may return product within 30 days upon receiving the product. Items returned must be new in it's original packing, including the original invoice for the purchase. Customer return product at their own expense.

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About the brand

KingStone

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About the brand

KingStone