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德勤企业风险（第7辑）·大数据：聚宝盆还是垃圾堆？

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德勤企业风险（第7辑）·大数据：聚宝盆还是垃圾堆？

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《德勤企业风险（第7辑）·大数据：聚宝盆还是垃圾堆？》是德勤企业风险丛书的第七辑，主要涉及大数据应用的前沿话题。内容包括通过数据分析投出制胜魔球——又一个遥不可及的管理神话吗？风险量化——辅助投资决策；数据分析在中国网络游戏行业项目中的应用；利用轨迹数据分析预防潜在企业风险；汽车残值预测模型的建立与验证；2013年中国保险业十大趋势与展望：中国碳市场与企业低碳管理；企业内部控制实务——单体决算与财务报告相关内部控制中最重要的业务流程。

Catalogue

特集
通过数据分析投出制胜魔球——又一个遥不可及的管理神话吗？
风险量化分析——辅助投资决策
数据分析在中国网络游戏行业项目中的应用
利用轨迹数据分析预防潜在企业风险
汽车残值预测模型的建立与验证
德勤专家多元视角
2013年中国保险业十大趋势与展望（下）
研究窒
中国碳市场与企业低碳管理
连载
企业内部控制实务（10）

Book Abstract

三．多年连续亏损，交强险对外资开放
自2007年7月1日机动车交通事故责任强制保险（以下称“交强险”）普遍实施后，由于部分人士认为保险公司牟取暴利，交强险的费率和赔偿责任上限因此作出调整。自此，交强险连续多年亏损。根据中国保险行业协会公布的数据，2011年，36家险企经营交强险，合计亏损达92亿元。其中，承保亏损112亿元，投资收益20亿元。导致交强险亏损严重主要是由于部分车辆／地区的赔付率过高、人伤赔付成本上升，以及司法环境的改变，等等。
而且，不少保险公司已经预见交强险的赔付将继续攀升。在中国人寿财产保险股份有限公司网站披露的截至2011年12月31日交强险精算报告指出了赔偿标准的提高，人伤案件赔付逐年提升，以及高院颁布的《关于审理道路交通事故损害赔偿适用法律若干问题的解释（征求意见稿）》建议将驾驶人无牌驾驶、酒驾和毒驾造成的损失纳入交强险保障的范围，这些都将对未来的赔付产生负面影响。
交强险亏损的日益增加近年来一直备受关注。部分业内人士反映，当初希望交强险“不盈不亏”，但在第一年保险公司取得盈利后马上下调费率和上调赔偿责任，其后连年亏损费率却一直没有再次进行调整。根据传媒报道，交强险部分车型如挂车、拖拉机、营业货车等亏损较为严重；同时，发达地区包括江苏、浙江、安徽、山东和上海的亏损也高于欠发达地区。由于全国费率的统一，且费率多年没有调整，费率已经和风险呈现脱钩。因此，业内期待未来交强险费率的调整机制可以有效地形成不同车型及不同地域的差异化管理。
因为交强险和商业车险通常是捆绑销售的，商业车险过去几年的利润贡献使交强险的亏损没有受到足够的注意，因为机动车险总体还是盈利的。但是，我们预期商业车险的利润存有不确定性，保险行业要求完善交强险定价机制的呼声将会越来越高涨。
就在中资险企抱怨交强险长期亏损，部分外资保险公司还是积极地要求交强险对外资开放。2012年2月14日，时任国家副主席习近平在华盛顿会见美国总统奥巴马后，中美双方发布《关于加强中美经济关系的联合情况说明》，其中促进金融业发展过程部分证实交强险将对外资保险公司开放。
2012年5月1日，修订后的《机动车交通事故责任强制保险条例》正式实施，新修改的条例对外资保险企业开放了交强险的经营权，并得到了外资的积极响应，目前已经有美亚财险、利宝保险、安联财产保险、中航安盟、三星财险和现代财险等外资险企获得经营交强险的资格。10月16日开始，利宝财险开展交强险业务，但业务范围限于重庆，以及其浙江和广东两家分公司。
2011年度车险的丰厚盈利对外资险企无疑具有很大的吸引力。以往，很少有客户愿意将交强险和商业车险分别向两家保险公司投保，因此不能经营交强险对外资险企拓展商业车险业务有很大的影响。部分外资险企，包括发出第一单外资交强险的利宝，一方面销售中资产险公司的交强险，另一方面销售自己的商业车险。但是，交强险业务属于亏损业务，商业车险是盈利业务，估计外资险资必须通过其他途径弥补中资险资。交强险的开放对外资的业务范围和运作将有重大改变。
自交强险对外资放开以后，大部分的分析都认为外资在短时间内对市场的影响有限。某产险公司高层认为，以外资险资现有的网络和过去的发展速度，即使再给10年的时间，外资险资也未必能达到一定的规模。可是，部分中资险资认为外资必然会考虑和一些外国品牌合作，加强竞争力，譬如德国保险公司和德国汽车品牌的合作；美国保险公司和美国汽车品牌的合作，这些合作可能对中资的市场份额产生一定的冲击。此外，我们认为部分外资保险也可能通过并购一些经营情况一般的产险公司，从而一次性获取庞大的运作网络。
无论如何，我们相信引进外资经营交强险会对现有保险市场格局产生一定的影响。
……

Introduction

“大数据开启了一次重大的时代转型。就像望远镜让我们能够感受宇宙，显微镜让我们能够观测微生物一样，大数据正在改变我们的生活以及理解世界的方式，成为新发明和新服务的源泉，而更多的改变正蓄势待发……”
——《大数据时代》半个世纪以来，计算机技术已经全面融入社会生活，信息爆炸已经积零到一个开始引发变革的程度。大数据的概念因此应运而生，并丰富了我们对世界的认识，从定量、结构的世界，到不确定、非结构的世界，这个转变，使我们得以了解真实的信息。伴随而来的数据分析技术，正不断地推动社会变革及商业变革。例如，搜索引擎公司利用用户搜索的关键词和频率，来推断用户的个人爱好及消费偏好；票务公司利用海量的价格记录，帮助用户预测机票价格的波动，为顾客提供合理出行的参考信息，节约购票成本……当我们对各类数据具备较为完善、随时的分析能力时，我们对事件的把握及预测能力便增强了。对于企业而言，数据分析将成为未来市场差异化发展、业务增长和利润率提升的主要推动力。企业要在全球整合的经济环境中竞争，就需要全面地了解市场、客户、产品、法规、竞争对手、供应商、员工等，通过对大数据进行分析、预测，使得企业管理层的决策更为精准，提高企业的管理水平和业绩表现。例如，通过采用大数据分析技术，识别关键机蔷信息，了解客户的消费偏好，挖掘潜在客户群体，甚至利用轨迹数据分析技术，建立风险模型，预防潜在企业风险，等等。数据分析的重要性已经不言而喻，今后的企业不但要加强数据收集，提高数据质量，更重要的是，应当尽快培养具有数据分析能力的团队，在海量的信息包围之下，以数据分析之手，去拨开大数据的层层迷雾，让大数据真正转化为企业最有价值的差异化资产。

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