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B&E管理学系列:旅游市场调查与预测

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B&E管理学系列:旅游市场调查与预测

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“B&E”(Business&Economics)系列包括了工商管理核心课程、经济学、金融学、会计学、财务学、营销学、管理学等各子系列,出版规模将超过百本,可谓“百门精品教材”。“百门精品教材”坚持“新观念与本土化”的创作思想,力图与海外教材接轨,既有海外经典教材的严密逻辑,又结合中国的实际,配有丰富的本土化案例。
Content Description

《B&E管理学系列:旅游市场调查与预测》从旅游院校市场调查与预测课程的教学需要与对象出发,对与旅游专业相关的市场调查与预测原理进行了遴选,将旅游市场调查与预测的概念、操作路径以及定性与定量方法,由浅入深、通俗易懂地完整呈现。作者吸收了国内外最新的旅游市场调查与预测研究成果,强调针对性、适用性与实用性,融入了许多独到的归纳总结。《B&E管理学系列:旅游市场调查与预测》还附有思考题与练习题及其参考题解、SPSS实操引导、部分数据等,方便读者使用。
《B&E管理学系列:旅游市场调查与预测》适用于高等院校旅游专业学生的专业课教学,同时对广大旅游企业的旅游市场调查与预测实践以及业务培训具有实用价值。
Author Description

李享,北京联合大学旅游学院教授、硕士生导师、实证研究室负责人。专注于休闲与旅游领域的市场调查、行为研究、统计分析、研究方法探索。从事旅游市场调查教学、科研与实践二十多年,主持或参与完成国际合作、国家级、省部级、相关企业等旅游市场调查类科研课题三十余项。已出版《旅游调查研究的方法与实践》、《旅游统计学》、《旅游统计学原理与实务》、《休闲与旅游统计研究》、《旅游出行方式研究——消费行为视角》、《中国休闲研究学术报告2011》等著作。
Catalogue

绪论篇
第1章 绪论
1.1 旅游市场调查概述
1.2 旅游市场调查行业
1.3 旅游市场预测概述
思考题

旅游市场调查篇
第2章 旅游市场调查方法
2.1 常用的定性旅游市场调查方法
2.2 非引导型调查方法
2.3 自由列举法
2.4 基于互联网信息的旅游市场调查方法
2.5 常用的定量旅游市场调查方法——问卷调查
思考题
第3章 文献的获取路径与综述
3.1 文献调查法的意义和作用
3.2 文献的搜集和整理
3.3 文献综述
3.4 案例和点评
附录文后参考文献著录规则
思考题
第4章 旅游市场调查设计与实施
4.1 旅游市场调查设计
4.2 旅游市场调查问卷设计
4.3 旅游市场调查实施
思考题
第5章 旅游市场调查中的有效沟通
5.1 访问人员的训练
5.2 访问的技巧与原则
5.3 现场问卷调查中的沟通问题
5.4 电话访谈调查中的沟通问题
5.5 网络问卷调查中的沟通问题
5.6 不同调查方法沟通方式的比较
5.7 市场调查的道德问题
思考题
第6章 旅游消费主体态度的测量
6.1 旅游消费主体态度的测量工具——态度量表
6.2 态度量表的设计
6.3 态度量表的评价——信度分析
6.4 态度量表的评价——效度分析
思考题
第7章 旅游市场调查报告
7.1 旅游市场调查报告概述
7.2 旅游市场调查报告撰写
思考题

旅游市场预测篇
第8章 旅游定性预测方法
8.1 旅游定性预测方法概述
思考题
练习题
练习题参考题解
参考文献
后记
Book Abstract

1)调查对象
所谓调查对象,就是要进行调查的客观事物的总体,是由在某一方面具有共同性质的许多个体组成的。如我们要了解2011年全国星级饭店的经营状况,那么,截至2011年年底,全国的13513家星级饭店就是调查对象,而其中的每一个企业就是一个调查单位。如果调查目的是为了了解全国国际旅行社在2011年招徕的入境旅游者的情况,那么全国的所有国际旅行社是我们所要调查的对象,而它们所招徕的1454.96万人境旅游者当中的每一位就是我们要调查的单位。
社会生活中许多现象之间相互联系又互有交叉,所以在确定调查对象时,不仅要指明它是什么,而且必须掌握其主要特点,这样才能把调查对象同与其有联系的或相似的现象区别开来。如前面讲到的旅游企业,只明确所有旅游饭店是调查对象是很不够的,还必须根据其特点,使其与工业企业或者旅游事业单位等区分开来,也就是要有明确的界限范围,才能划出13513家星级饭店就是我们所要求的调查对象。只有正确地、科学地确定调查对象,才能划清统计研究的总体界限,弄清什么事物或现象包括在规定的调查范围之内,避免因总体界限不清而影响调查登记资料的准确性。调查对象的确定只是从大的方面把某项调查的范围或统计的界限明确了,而能不能按照已定的对象进行统计,还需要进一步正确解决调查单位的问题,否则就不能真正按照已定的调查对象进行统计,结果仍然不能保证统计资料的准确性。
2)调查单位
所谓调查单位,是指构成调查对象的每一个单位,是进行登记的标志承担者,也就是在调查对象中所需要调查的具体单位。如果要了解目前我国旅游高等教育的发展状况,到2011年年底,全国共有高等旅游院校及开设旅游专业的普通高等院校1115所,那么所有的这些从事旅游高等教育的院校就是调查对象,而1115所当中的每一所院校就是一个调查单位。调查对象不同,调查单位也就不同。如调查对象是这1115所院校,则每一所院校就是一个调查单位;调查对象是这1115所院校的学生,则调查单位便是这些院校当中的每位学生。确定调查单位,目的在于明确向谁作调查,采用什么样本,即从哪些方面去搜集所要登记的资料。
从统计范围上来说,既然能够符合调查对象特点,包括在调查对象中的单位就应该看作是调查单位,否则就不应列入。调查单位是调查标志的承担者,包括在调查对象中的每一个单位都应当符合这一要求。在大多数情况下,包括在调查对象中的单位都有可能被确定为要实际进行调查的单位。全面调查当然没有疑问,每个单位都无一例外地要进行调查。对抽样调查来说,也可以作这种理解,因为在抽样调查中,调查对象中的每个单位都有被抽中的可能,哪些单位被抽中,哪些单位不被抽中,事先是无法断定的。
……
Introduction

大众旅游时代,当越来越多的中国老百姓注重旅游,并且以旅游来提升其生活品质与个人身心健康之时,各级旅游公共服务部门及旅游从业者应研究国民方方面面的旅游需求,提供令群众满意的服务。因此,实时的旅游市场调查、前瞻性的旅游市场预测,就成为一种现实的、持续的需求。同时,作为一种能力的培养,市场调查的能力,是一个人必不可少的职业能力和追求智慧生活的生存能力。
《旅游市场调查与预测》一书是作者经过长期的教学与学术研究积累,在不断的旅游市场调查与预测实践基础上,潜心钻研、勤奋笔耕,开创性地完成的一部教材。
从教材的角度来讲,本书极具针对性,即针对同名课型、针对特定专业方向。本教材所选之方法均为时下国际上最新、最常用的预测法,采用“傻瓜”式的案例引导方法讲授,学习者易于掌握和“套”用。实用、适用、好用、前沿,正是这一教材的特色。
近日,微软研究院的David Rothschild通过对奥斯卡入围影片相关数据分析,预测出本届奥斯卡各项大奖的最终归属,这一预测得到休闲娱乐业界的广泛关注。同理,旅游市场调查与预测的重要性,也越来越为广大经营管理者所认同:因此,本书可以满足广大从业者的需要。
谨于书首略缀数语为序,并表达恭贺、鼓励与推荐之意,也为我们学校的优秀教师又向社会贡献出新的研究成果而感到由衷的高兴。

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