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Jingdong book

汽车产业和汽车社会:一个汽车人的思考

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中国的汽车只用了约50年的时间,就走完了从无到有,到蓬勃发展,从单纯的汽车制造,发展到前后向和旁侧关联到众多行业的汽车产业,随后很快迈入汽车社会的历程。汽车不仅成为经济增长的新动力,也影响了社会的方方面面,如交通、大气污染、城市规划、生活方式,社会道德和文明,等等。
这样一个发展过程是如何实现的,从中可汲取什么样的经验教训;随着汽车社会的形成,以及汽车对经济社会影响的日益显著,在能源和环境瓶颈的制约下,我们该如何应对?回答这些问题,对于中国汽车产业和汽车社会的可持续发展至关重要。
作者陈清泰见证并参与了中国汽车产业半个多世纪的发展历程,书中汇聚了作者十多年来针对汽车产业发展和汽车社会形成所作的思考,为政策制定者提出的建议,展示了我国汽车产业快速发展中的历史记忆和至今尚需补救、完善的问题。同时,也对未来汽车技术跨越和追赶,尤其是电动汽车的发展形势做出了判断、就电动车发展战略和相关政策进行了研究。
本书为汽车企业、政府人员和相关学者了解过去十多年来中国汽车产业和汽车社会发展的脉络、政策,把握未来的政策走向,提供了不可或缺的参考。
Author Description

陈清泰,1963年毕业于清华大学汽车专业,获优秀毕业生金质奖章,并留校任教。1970年进入第二汽车制造厂,先后任产品设计工程师、高级工程师,产品设计处副处长、处长。1982年之后,任二汽总工程师、第二汽车制造厂厂长暨东风汽车公司总经理,兼任神龙汽车公司第一届董事长。1992年调任国家经济贸易办公室副主任,次年任国家经济贸易委员会副主任。1997年兼任中国货币政策委员会第一届委员。1998年任国家发展研究中心党组书记、副主任。
1988年被评为首届全国优秀企业家,获全国首届经济改革人才奖。系第九届全国政协委员,第十届全国政协常委、经济委员会副主任。清华大学公共管理学院首任院长。中国上市公司协会首任会长。受聘为清华大学、国家行政学院、南开大学兼职教授。
国家发展研究中心研究员。主要从事政策咨询研究,涉及领域为国有企业改革,增长方式转型与经济体制改革,产业发展与结构调整,技术创新与科技政策。
Catalogue

导言V
第一部分汽车观念转变和政策转型
跳出传统思维定式看汽车 / 3
迎接中国大众汽车消费时代 / 8
创造自主品牌比形成开发能力更难 / 16
把大众汽车消费引向可持续发展的轨道 / 23
从重视产业政策转向重视社会政策 / 30
制定和实施保障汽车持续发展的政策 / 35
建设节约型社会与交通节能 / 43
消费引导是“牛鼻子” / 48
汽车企业的自主创新和自主品牌 / 55
汽车产业与汽车社会 / 62
汽车产业发展的十字路口 / 68
迎接汽车社会,培育汽车文明 / 73
机会稍纵即逝 / 82
第二部分电动汽车和汽车产业振兴
加快我国电动汽车产业化刻不容缓 / 95
全球电动汽车产业发展的最新动态 / 100
培育新的产业增长支柱的几点意见 / 105
把握新能源汽车的历史机遇 / 109
电动汽车产业发展的战略和政策要点 / 118
电动汽车发展需要稳定的预期 / 123
两种选择,两种结果 / 128
关于加快电动汽车发展的几点建议 / 133
走出电动汽车产业化困境 / 138
电动汽车成为主流产品尚有个过程,但必须从今天抓起 / 144
特斯拉汽车公司创新发展对我国的启示 / 149
促进电动汽车发展中的政策创新 / 155
第三部分附录
日本未来汽车发展战略 / 163
奥巴马的新能源计划和电动汽车政策 / 180
一盘未下完的好棋 / 189
Introduction

导言
我国自己制造的第一辆汽车——解放牌卡车1956年7月15日在长春第一汽车制造厂下线。次年我进入清华大学,就读汽车专业。我的汽车情节引导我参与和见证了中国汽车产业半个多世纪发展的历程。
汽车是工业化过程最好的一个“带头产业”。改革开放后我国工业化进程加快,汽车产业发展越来越受到国家重视。但在那百废待兴的年代也引来了诸多的争议。我1982年出任第二汽车制造厂总工程师,1984年做厂长。期间,为了获得企业发展项目的审批和政策支持,我不得不从到处宣讲汽车产业发展的意义和规律开始,并以各种方式回答来自各方面的争议。那时我用了不少精力研究汽车的属性、汽车产业与经济社会发展的关系和相关政策。
1992年我到了国家经贸办、经贸委。为了避嫌,我不再介入汽车行业的事务,但对汽车业的思考并没有中断。
1998年我进入国务院发展研究中心,分工联系产业经济研究部。这使我有机会参与了不少有关汽车产业的调查和课题研究。
亚洲金融危机之后,为启动内需,在世纪之交,我国大众汽车消费由抑制性政策转向鼓励性政策。政策的大转弯使多年被政策压抑的汽车消费需求迅速释放,汽车的产销呈现出爆炸式增长。
中国人的消费有明显的从众心理。无论是20世纪80年代初期手表、自行车、缝纫机的百元级“三大件”,还是90年代初期电视机、电冰箱、洗衣机的千元级“三大件”,都曾出现“排浪式消费”的特点。这一轮几万至十几万、几十万级的汽车消费来势之猛,几乎把发达国家曾用三四十年的汽车消费增长历程压缩到了10年。
但是,与前两类“三大件”不同,汽车消费需要强大的消费条件的支持,还需要全社会基于对汽车属性的深刻理解而形成的汽车文化。但是这一切我们都缺乏必要的准备。
近10我国汽车业可以用“飞速发展期”来描述,每年都有新气象、每年都有新问题。其中有汽车产业发展问题、汽车消费条件问题、有能源环境问题,也有进入汽车社会面临的问题。我参与汽车发展研究侧重的是相关战略和政策。这可能与国务院发展研究中心的职业特点和我个人经历有关,因为我总希望结合汽车产业发展的不同时期,从战略性、前瞻性视角,尽我所能提出问题,引起人们的思考;从政策层面进行讨论,为政府和企业提出建议。进入大众汽车消费的初期,人们关注的是汽车产业的自身;进一步,关注的重点就转向了基础设施的支承能力、能源的保障能力和环境的承载能力。这些都是长期政策研究的重点,但是涉及的问题不仅于此。
与一般商品消费品不同,汽车消费有极强的文化道德示范和扩散效应。从这个意义上说,汽车社会是一所大学校。汽车消费的过程在众目睽睽的公众场合进行,具有流动性、展示性和可比性。这就使汽车选购、使用、驾驶等各个环节的消费行为不仅反映消费者自身的偏好,而且在向社会传播文化、展示道德风尚,会产生强烈感染力和模仿效应。
我深深地感悟到,进入大众汽车消费时代之后,居民的生活方式悄然转变,此时更加深刻和影响深远的是怎样形成良好的汽车文化、汽车文明和汽车社会,使汽车成为我国实现现代化的载体,推进社会进步的车轮,提高居民素质的平台。中国汽车社会的到来是如此之快,以致我们缺乏这方面的理念和启蒙。当前和今后制约中国汽车发展的主导因素已经不在汽车产业自身。继续把汽车只看作一个产业,肯定是一种失误,现在出现的很多问题恰恰就是因为仅仅把汽车当作一个产业,而对汽车进入大众消费之后,对全社会的生产方式、生活方式、社会文化、社会道德带来的冲击,冲击的深度、广度和辐射力缺乏基本的认知。我在一些文章中尽力对此进行了“鼓与呼”。
全球金融危机使我国产业结构失衡的矛盾充分暴露,也对结构升级形成了倒逼的力量。2008年国家在部署4万亿拉动经济增长措施的同时,国务院领导召开座谈会听取促进经济发展的意见。之前我到吴敬琏老师家交换意见,我们一致认为,4万亿可以稳住经济增长态势,但还不能解决优化结构的问题;而淘汰落后生产能力,在相当程度上要以振兴有前景的产业为前提。在座谈会上,我提出别国经济不景气为我国产业和企业的快速追赶,甚至后来居上提供了机会。当前应当制定和实施产业振兴计划,促进包括电动汽车在内的具有先导性、带动能力强、条件成熟的那些产业有较快的发展,培育新的消费热点和新的产业增长支柱。
之后我和吴敬琏老师、发展研究中心的高世楫、张永伟、王青等形成了一个“培育新一轮经济增长的产业支柱与建设经济长期发展的体制环境”课题组。关注新兴产业的发展,包括电子信息、新能源、新能源汽车、电子商务、页岩气、医疗设备等。其中在电动汽车上我们下了不少功夫,陆续给政府提出了一些政策建议。本书收集的部分报告是课题组的研究成果。
本书共分三个部分,每一部分选出的报告和文章都按时间顺序排列,目的是给读者一种时序感。第一部分是10多年来各个时期针对汽车产业发展和汽车社会形成提出的问题以及为政策制定者提出的建议。我想这些文字不仅是我国汽车产业快速发展中的历史记忆,也有许多是至今尚需补救和完善的工作进程。面对进入大众汽车消费阶段后出现的种种现象,我最想传达给读者的是,希望政府和社会更加关注汽车的属性,充分重视和努力培育中国的汽车文明及汽车文化,建设一个好的汽车社会。第二部分是电动汽车和汽车产业振兴。在中国成为汽车大国、努力实现汽车的技术跨越和产业追赶的时候,我们迎来了百年不遇的汽车动力技术的革命,使我真有一种“天赐良机”的感觉。这部分报告和文章的主要内容关于对电动汽车发展形势的判断、发展战略和相关政策研究。第三部分是附录,提供一些背景。
本书不是理论著述,大多数文章属于问题导向的政策研究,主要是针对汽车产业发展形势、出现的问题、遇到的体制掣肘和政策障碍进行分析判断,并提出解决方案和政策建议。其中有些问题在多篇文章中不得不重复提起。这主要是对问题的理解需要不断深化、形成共识,解决问题的方案需要反复磨合,而问题的解决也需要把握时机。例如放宽市场准入、低速电动汽车问题等。
本书主要为汽车企业、政府人员和相关学者研究10多年来中国汽车产业和汽车社会发展的脉络和政策提供参考。

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