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Jingdong book

首席经济学家论坛：中国经济如何化险为夷

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Jingdong book

首席经济学家论坛：中国经济如何化险为夷

Name: 首席经济学家论坛：中国经济如何化险为夷
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110032641
Price: 25.96 USD
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《首席经济学家论坛》汇集了20余家著名金融机构的首席经济学家的研究成果，兼具理论研究与市场观察，关注全球经济与中国发展，为中国经济金融改革顶层设计与发展路径选择贡献集体智慧。

Content Description

《首席经济学家论坛：中国经济如何化险为夷》的主题是“寻找守住系统性风险底线的对策，寻找稳定今年健康增长的对策”。首席经济学家们就宏观经济未来走势做出研判：中国经济发展的内在逻辑，决定了今后的经济增速必然趋缓，对此我们应当理性看待。
经济增速趋缓的同时，更大的考验是风险的逼近。“中国经济大震荡”其实离我们并不遥远。由于过去诸多矛盾和问题的积累，今后的政策稍有偏差，就有可能爆发危机。
中国经济该如何化险为夷？首席经济学家们各抒己见：提前释放部分系统性风险，促改革、寻找新的增长因子，避免新一轮经济刺激计划，发挥财政效力，调控楼市……这些建言的背后昭示我们共同的底线——守住不发生系统性风险的底线！唯此，中国经济才能渡过难关。

Author Description

主编国务院参事夏斌
其他编委作者均为国内各大银行、证券公司、投资机构的“首席经济学家”：交通银行连平；海通证券李迅雷；华泰证券刘煜辉；安信证券高善文；银河证券潘向东；光大证券徐高；方正证券汤云飞；申银万国杨成长；摩根大通公司朱海斌；澳新银行中国区刘利刚；日本瑞穗金融集团沈建光；兴业银行鲁政委；富国基金袁宜；花旗集团沈明高。

Catalogue

论坛报告
稳增长，守风险，调结构——中国首席经济学家论坛成果梳理
一、对宏观经济未来走势如何研判？
二、现今经济运行中面临的风险主要是哪些？
三、针对当前的经济问题有哪些政策建议？

经济增长与风险控制
判断、风险、增长新要素：看清中国经济发展的内在逻辑力量
国务院参事夏斌
一、中国正处于结构调整时期，不必纠结于增长速度
二、三大系统性风险全面告急
三、严控风险，积极寻找新的增长因子

经济增长趋缓与金融扩张之间的背离
交通银行连平
一、现象背后的本质：三大结构问题凸显
二、不容忽视的潜在融资风险
三、加大金融的力度支持政策导向

稳增长与控风险之间的联系
中金公司彭文生
一、从价格和实际运用判断当前的货币融资
二、汇率的双重属性
三、财税体制的结构弊端

风险逼近：中国经济能越过这道坎吗？
摩根大通朱海滨
一、实体经济与金融体系正同时面临考验
二、影子银行发展的速度是不是过快了？
三、企业负债率上升可能成为未来最大的金融风险点
四、当前形势下的经济对策

稳增长需警惕“周期交替综合征”
中信证券诸建芳
一、应当理性看待当前经济增速偏低
二、应该尽可能地避免启动新的一轮刺激
三、建议维持“社会可接受的最低水平的经济增长”

2013年下半年宏观经济展望：守住底线，寻求突围
东方证券邵宇
一、热钱潮涌、影子银行和步履维艰的实体经济
二、寻找守住系统性风险底线的对策
三、寻求促进经济健康发展的对策

寻找稳定2013年经济健康增长的对策
瑞穗证券沈建光
一、中国经济复苏基础不牢靠
二、实体经济运行疲软已超出决策层和市场的预期
三、结构性改革“志在必行”

金融政策研究
我对中国债务的理解
华泰证券刘煜辉
一、中国走出债务困境的政策选择
二、债务堆积的本质是收入的衰退
三、为什么“金融热、经济冷”？
四、走出债务困境的政策选择

中国整体与部门债务率的测算及评估
华泰证券刘煜辉
一、中国经济的整体债务规模估算
二、部门债务的估算
三、债务状况的评价

房地产业与经济陷入了“死循环”
富国基金袁宜
一、房地产市场的稳定事关中国经济的稳定
二、房地产调控在供求政策上的两大误区
三、房产税如何发挥调控作用？
四、拐点出现时的危与机

中国金融改革的次序——传统政策组合逐步失效下的政策选择
澳新银行刘利刚
一、现象：市场开始更加波动
二、短期策略：应该考虑降息
三、中期策略：理性考虑金融改革的次序
……

Book Abstract

对宏观经济未来走势如何研判？
1.中国经济趋缓将成为必然趋势
国务院参事夏斌认为，这个趋势是中国经济发展的内在逻辑力量决定的，并不完全是经济周期问题，也不是宏观政策、宏观调控所能简单支配的。当前的国民经济正处于结构调整时期，未来经济增长未必一定保持8%以上的速度，加快发展的途径不再是单纯依靠货币政策的调控，而是平衡改革、发展、稳定之间的关系，适时进行经济结构调整。调整意味着各级政府与市场主体都不能再用过去两位数增长所积累的经验数据作为参考来布局今后的工作规划和经营计划。要从对高增长的关注转移到对改革的关注上来，要学会从改革中寻找新的增长因素。
2.应当理性看待当前经济增速偏低的现象
中信证券首席宏观经济学家诸建芳认为，从最新的PM指数、汇丰PMI指数以及用电数据和价格指数来看，经济增长可能还处在放缓中。但是，这种放缓不单单是受短期因素的影响，也与经济周期密切相关。中国经济正处于新旧周期的交替期（始于2001年的本轮经济周期因2008年全球金融危机而宣告结束，而新的周期尚在酝酿中），所呈现的“周期交替综合征”与上一轮经济周期交替期颇为相似：经济增速持续回落，尽管政策不断放松，经济却难以恢复往昔的活力，内在的增长动力明显减弱（即加入WTO后所释放的强大的外部需求；1998年房改后所释放的巨大的住房需求；收入增加后所释放的汽车等耐用品需求）；价格低迷甚至通缩；经济结构失衡，产能过剩与不足同时存在；困难中需要实施新一轮改革。预计本轮周期交替期可能持续3~4年。
3.房地产与中国经济稳定的关系依旧紧密
富国基金首席经济学家袁宜认为，考虑到目前房地产投资占整个投资的比重还有20%，而投资占整个经济比重大约是一半，加之房地产业还拉动了很多上下游产业，从某种意义上讲，房地产市场的稳定，是当前阶段中国经济稳定的一个重要组成部分，而房地产市场稳定的核心，是房价的稳定。当房地产价格上升过快时，由于涉及民生，需要调控干预；当价格明显回落的时候，又会影响开发商预期，导致房地产投资萎靡。以往在房地产调控中存在供给和需求两个政策上的误区。供给政策上，通过收紧开发商的资金链来抑制投资过热和控制房价过快上涨，短期可能会加速开发商减少商品房库存，但另一个结果就是开发商会减缓购地和开发投资，一段时间以后，新增的住房供应量会减少，房价会面临更大的上行压力；需求政策上，现行限购限贷政策，在抑制投资性需求的同时也伤及了刚需
……

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