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Jingdong book

你无法旁观的中国经济

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你无法旁观的中国经济

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集合社会热点经济现象,解读身边经济新闻。
这是*好的时代,这是*坏的时代
没错,这就是我们所处的时代

Content Description

互联网红包大战硝烟再起,中国股市陷入疯狂,青岛大虾引发热议,低价团之争再上头条,远赴重洋只为买只马桶盖,黄金地段为何不卖LV只卖包子?与我们日常生活息息相关的经济新闻背后到底蕴含怎样的经济学原理?财经记者从经济学的视角为我们一一解读。

Author Description

华说,本名郁忠华,财经作家、主任记者,长期关注中国经济的发展和走向。推崇“真实世界的经济学”,致力于以经济学解释世事。著有《解惑中国经济》(2014)、《乡愁的成本——日常生活中的经济学》(2012)、《百姓身边的那些事》(2011)。
Catalogue

第一章日子:百态人生
3000万光棍合娶老婆?
想离婚,先拿号
大学还是要念的——比尔·盖茨的忠告
成功人士如何过周末
香奈儿降价与需求曲线
去日本买只马桶盖
“金箔入酒”的争议
“趁雪打劫”:道德与产权
方便面的“高端”路线
不卖名牌卖包子,黄金地段的经济学
恩格尔系数靠谱吗?
第二章社会:热点纷扰
秸秆焚烧的成本观
GDP数据到底靠不靠谱
人民币贬值与张五常之锚
“猪周期”与货币政策
PPP:政府与市场的边界
牛顿算不出股市的疯狂
存贷比与银行监管
免费午餐吃上瘾,扶贫扶出坏脾气
减税与降价
网速快点,再快点
中等收入陷阱之辩
清算市场开放,银联好日子到头了
亚投行的生意经
个税改革与起征点
工业用地的“弹性出让”
价格改革:放开与放手
“市场”为什么值得追求
市场定价的经济学解释
第三章互联网:喧嚣背后
国产手机的突围
支付宝能拿下菜市场吗?
自私的基因
“无人工厂”是“中国智造”吗?
高通为什么按整机售价收费
互联网红包大战
第四章出行:新旧碰撞
哥卖的不是茶,是座位
为出租车“份子钱”正名
跌落的机票代理费
第五章旅游:成长烦恼
低价游,你占不到的便宜
一盘青岛大虾引发的“血案”
低价团如何回本
Book Abstract

不卖名牌卖包子,黄金地段的经济学
要是你穿上西装,带新相识的女朋友,郑重其事地到跑马地的雅谷餐厅去吃晚餐,你不会选择吃汉堡。事实上,雅谷的老板明知你不会选择吃汉堡,他的高级餐厅便没有汉堡包供应。这便是需求定律的含意了。
有一天我因事途经市中心的一条商业街,看到一家点心店门前排满了人。街是名街,不仅在国内为人们熟知,在海外亦有名声。按照本地政府的规划,未来还会打造成“世界级商业街”;店是名店,是有铜牌匾额的“中华老字号”,排队现象几乎天天发生司空见惯,是城市的一景。
区区在下非“购物狂”,也不是“吃货”,这街少有光顾,这店也少有光临,自然无意为其大做广告。之所以提到这街、这店,是因为看见那排队的一幕,由此及彼地想到近来一直萦绕着脑子里的交易速度问题。
这条商业街位于闹市中心,寸土寸金,且又名动神州,是所谓的“黄金地段”。地段好,自然租金也高。与之相对应,在此街上开张营业的,大抵是财雄势厚的大店、名店。这一点,从沿街林立的店招便可知悉。当然,既是大店名店,其店内出售的商品也与其身份相符。这些商品最直观的特点或者说最直接的表现,便是价格的高昂。
在这商业街上的这家点心店虽然是“中华老字号”,但与同一条街上金碧辉煌气势恢宏的大店相比,显然不在一个层面上。不仅规模小,而且其出售的商品也属“小儿科”,主要包括馄饨、生煎、小笼、面条在内的各种中式传统小吃,以及糕团与熟菜、卤味等等,价格颇为低廉,从几元、十几元、二十几元不等。问题来了,在这租金高企的黄金地段,卖着平民的点心,这家点心店是如何生存下来的呢?
是人们日常的生活经验,也是可以观察到的事实:在小区附近的社区商店内出售的物品,一般而言是价格较低的,而市中心的著名商业街上出售的商品价格较高。倘若要买高档的物品,人们大抵会到市中心的大店、名店里购买。原因众所周知,因为社区商铺租金较低,而闹市区黄金地段的商铺租金较高,与之相匹配,租金低,卖较低质量、较低价格商品;租金高,卖较高质量、较高价格的商品。越是黄金地段,租金越贵,卖的商品就越高档。
“宝剑配英雄,红粉赠佳人”,无他,在英雄手里,宝剑才能展示出所有的锋芒;在佳人的玉容上,红粉才能呈现最夺目的颜色。商铺也一样,租值越高——通常以租金的形式表现,一般而言,其所售卖的商品的质量越高,价格也越高。因为唯有如此,才能与商铺的租值相匹配。
为什么在现实中会出现这样的“商铺——商品租值匹配”现象?原因简单,因为人们的行为受到需求定律的支配和制约。换言之,需求定律驱使着人们做这样的选择。张五常教授在其《经济解释·科学说需求》中写道:“朋友,想想吧。要是你穿上西装,带新相识的女朋友,郑重其事地到跑马地的雅谷餐厅去吃晚餐,你不会选择吃汉堡。事实上,雅谷的老板明知你不会选择吃汉堡,他的高级餐厅便没有汉堡包供应。这便是需求定律的含意了。”
买了一块高级的住宅用地,风景如画,你不会建一所简陋的房子在那里。要是你发了神经,以简陋为贵,建造了那样的房子,你的建造费用一定血本无归:在建造后把房子卖出时,你所得的充其量是地价而已。上佳的住宅用地,建造的房子必定是较佳的。这也是需求定律的含意。
需求定律说,价格上升,需求量下降。这价格,不仅指市场可见的价格,也泛指一切代价。为什么人们不会在雅谷的高级餐厅里选择汉堡?因为跑到这里来吃汉堡太过奢侈。为什么高级的住宅用地不会建简陋的房子?因为建一所破屋用这么好的土地建设代价太过高昂!
商铺的道理也一样。花了高价盘下一个商铺,卖一些不入流的地摊货,结局只有一个:血本无归。代价如此之大,自然是令人望而却步、知难而退的。
换一个角度。租商铺卖东西是一盘生意,整盘生意的收入是租值,要实现租值最大化,租值匹配是必需的。因为高档商铺卖低档商品,拉低了商铺的价值;低档商铺卖高档商品,高档商品不容易卖出去。因为消费者会认为其是假货,损害了商品的价值。唯有商铺与商品相匹配,整盘生意的租值最大化才有可能实现。
既然如此,在市中心著名商业街的黄金地段,这家卖小吃的点心店何以能够生存下来?这里的核心因素,愚以为是交易速度。
租一间门面做生意,简化起见,只卖一样东西。整盘生意的收入(I)=单价(P)×销售量(Q)。收入取决于价格与销售量的变动。销售量不变,收入随价格而上下浮沉;价格不变,则收入随着销售量的波动而增减。而销售量取决于交易速度和营业时间。一般而言,营业时间是不变的,因此,销售量与交易速度直接挂钩:交易速度越快,则销售量越大,反之则相反。这样,如果交易速度够快,卖廉价商品可以和卖高档商品达到同等的收入。
举例说吧,假设张三在市中心黄金地段租一间门面做生意,其租值最大化时月均收入为10万元。那么,张三有多种选择:(A)卖奢侈品,单价10万元,一个月卖出一件即可;(B)卖高档品,单价1万元,一个月需要卖出10件;(C)卖中档品,单价1000元,一个月需要卖出100件;(D)卖一般品,单价100元,一个月需要买1000件;(E)卖廉价品,单价10元,一个月需卖出10000件。由此可见,只要交易速度足够快,能够达到月均10000件的成交速度或者说出货速度,卖单价10元的廉价品也可以实现租值最大化。
实际上,这并非仅仅是理论逻辑的推算,实践中有不少鲜活的案例存在。曾经有一篇报道中提到,我国香港地区铜锣湾有一个小店,20多平方米的一个小店,年租金高达200多万港币——香港铜锣湾商铺租金之高举世闻名。很难想象,这个只卖普通饮品的小店,居然在市场竞争中生存了下来。靠什么生存?就是靠惊人的交易速度:它每天卖几万份!
还有另一个例子,上海市西部有一家高端的购物中心,顶级奢侈品云集。在这个购物中心的二层,开设有一家小食肆,售卖的是最普通的上海点心—春卷、馄饨、锅贴、小笼包等,还有诸多上海人记忆中难以磨灭的“麦乳精”,价格也不贵(当然比起弄堂口要高得多),一份5只装的锅贴价格超过20元,一盘菜饭的售价不超过35元,食客络绎不绝。开设这家小食肆的是当地一家著名的餐饮企业,也是上市公司,原先一直走高端路线。因为一些原因,过去一两年业绩急转直下,不得不放下身段,开发了主打点心的小店。相比于人均客单价200元以上的正餐大店,点心店的人均客单价仅为80元,但开在租金高昂的高端购物中心,却创造了15%的利润率。其中的奥秘,是其每日超过6次的翻台率!
地段越好,商铺租金越高,所出售的商品也就越高档,价格也越昂贵,这是人们常见的“租值匹配”定律,但加进了交易速度,这定律显然要重新考量。因为只要交易速度足够快,卖廉价物品也同样可以实现租值最大化。前者常见,后者也不罕有,商业街上卖点心的“中华老字号”如是,铜锣湾卖饮品的小店如是,购物中心卖小食的点心店亦如是。前者之所以更为常见,只是因为交易速度要达到所谓的“够快”并不是那么简单和容易的。
租值由市场厘定,因而随市场上下而波动。日常观察所得的“租值匹配”定律本身并不错,但考虑交易速度,则需要进一步的补充和丰富,也即可以进一步的一般化,这是租值匹配的交易速度定律:要实现同等的租值,交易速度与商品价格成反比。交易速度越快,商品价格可越低,交易速度越慢,则需商品价格越高。
……

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