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Jingdong book

中国飞速的经济增长

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Books Economy China Economy

Jingdong book

中国飞速的经济增长

Name: 中国飞速的经济增长
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110033881
Price: 42.47 USD
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《中国飞速的经济增长》将先介绍解释经济增长的不同方法——理论模型、实证估算以及非经济因素——这些将构成我们对中国经济增长的解释（第2章）。接下来，描述和解释了中国经济转型的过程，制度与政策的演变过程，以及它们与改革所带来的经济增长之间的相互影响（第3章）。
基于这两种完全不同的视角提出的理论框架有助于我们理解构成《中国飞速的经济增长》核心部分（第二部分，第4章至第7章）的计量经济学的分析。
经济增长自身在未作影响评估之前不应作为经济政策的核心目标。第三部分探讨中国经济增长的影响。
在总结性的第四部分，第12章讨论了中国经济持续快速增长的前景。其中探讨了可能导致经济增长率减缓的各种因素，包括当前中国的宏观经济严重不平衡是否会持续，以及社会成本和负面影响（不利后果）是否将终结经济的快速增长。第13章总结了《中国飞速的经济增长》的论点，并将所有论据汇总以求论据的完整全面；贯穿以中国潜在的政治经济为研究重心的主题，回顾评估了中国迅猛的经济增长。

Content Description

中国的经济在过去三十年为何能保持如此惊人的增长速度（不低于10％）？《中国飞速的经济增长》运用经济理论、实证及政策分析来解读这个困扰当代经济的问题。《中国飞速的经济增长》的一条主线是政治经济体制：为什么中国成为一个“发展型国家”，它是如何保持这样的地位的？《中国飞速的经济增长》分析了中国政治和政策改革的关键性时刻：试图通过跨区域间的发展等式来分析经济增长的决定因素。它分析了中国经济增长的影响，提出了一系列关键性的问题，例如：经济增长是否得益于劳动力，经济发展不均衡的原因是什么，以增长为目的的发展带来了哪些社会问题，中国能否保持持续、高速的增长。
基于原创性的研究，《中国飞速的经济增长》将为发展经济学家、转型经济学家、中国问题专家、政策制定者及对中国问题存在疑惑的读者提供不可多得的帮助。

Catalogue

第一部分引言
约翰·奈特
1.背景介绍与回顾
1.1 研究问题
1.2 中国经济史
1.3 数据
1.4 研究方法
1.5 本书内容概述
2.理解经济增长的方法
2.1 经济增长模型
2.2 经济增长的实证方法
2.3 经济增长和经济发展
2.4 经济增长和（收入）不平等
2.5 未来展望
3.制度与政策的演变
3.1 引言
3.2 中央计划经济
3.3 农村改革
3.4 城市改革
3.5 经济范围的改革
3.6 经济改革的政治经济
3.7 结论

第二部分中国经济增长的决定因素
丁赛和约翰·奈特
4.从跨经济体增长角度看中国
4.1 引言
4.2 中国增长的背景
4.3 扩大索洛模型
4.4 数据和样本
4.5 实证方法论
4.6 实证结果
4.7 解释中国的相对业绩
4.8 结论
附录4.1 中国的就业数据
附录4.2 模型推导
5.基础的跨省增长方程
5.1 引言
5.2 方法论
5.3 数据
5.4 模型选择结果
5.5 基准模型
5.6 结论
附录5.1 变量的详细定义
6.物质资本和人力资本形成的作用
6.1 引言
6.2 物质资本积累
6.3 人力资本积累
6.4 反事实预测的例证
6.5 快速的资本积累是如何实现的？
6.6 结论
附录6.1 详细的变量定义
7.结构调整的作用：贸易、所有权和工业
7.1 引言
7.2 不断扩大的开放度
7.3 制度变革
7.4 行业变革和工业化
7.5 结论
附录7.1 详细的变量定义
8.中国为何投资如此之多？
8.1 引言
8.2 投资需求
8.3 投资供给：资源
8.4 投资供给：资金
8.5 投资效率：静态角度
8.6 投资效率：动态角度
8.7 结论

第三部分中国经济增长的影响
约翰·奈特
9.经济增长和劳动力市场
9.1 引言
9.2 刘易斯模型
9.3 中国劳动力市场的发展趋势
9.4 文献综述
9.5 数据
9.6 农民工工资行为
9.7 潜在农民工的储备量
9.8 对未来的推测
9.9 结论
10.经济增长与不平等
10.1 引言
10.2 不平等的加剧
10.3 财富分布的不均衡
10.4 不平等的加剧与贫困的关系
10.5 促使不平等加剧的因素：城市收入
10.6 促使不平等加剧的因素：农村收入
10.7 促使不平等加剧的因素：空间收入
10.8 日益加剧的不平等：政策问题
10.9 总结
11.经济增长与幸福感
11.1 引言
11.2 主观幸福感的研究背景
11.3 调查、数据和方法
11.4 农村幸福感
11.5 城市幸福感
11.6 城乡比较
11.7 农民工幸福感
11.8 期望收入和幸福感
11.9 结论

第四部分结语
约翰·奈特
12.中国经济发展的前景
12.1 引言
12.2 日趋成熟的经济
12.3 宏观经济不平衡
12.4 政治冲击
12.5 结论
13.中国经济发展的回顾
13.1 引言
13.2 中国经济增长的原因
13.3 中国经济增长的影响
13.4 增长研究过程中应该吸取的经验教训
13.5 中国应该吸取的经验教训
13.6 其他发展中经济体应该吸取的经验教训

Book Abstract

比起增长的间接决定因素，经济学家更善于分析增长的直接决定因素，可是这些传统的变量可能只是代表了一些关联，这些关联本身还要由因果过程解释。有三种可能的实证方法：增长核算、结构性增长模型和非正式增长回归。每一种都有它的优劣势；每一种都值得探索。与前两者不同，第三种方法允许引入一些代表经济增长直接原因和根本原因的解释性变量。这正适合我们的目的，所以在第5至7章中我们使用了这种方法。
我们研究的一个特点是为了在稳健预测量的基础上使用最新开发的模型选择方法构建实证模型。增长理论是有很多，但是在这些理论中做出选择的根据却几乎没有。在跨经济体增长回归的背景下模型不确定性问题吸引了很多研究者关注。但是，据我们所知，模型不确定性问题在对中国的跨省增长研究中多半被忽略了，就是说，现有的文献在调查中国增长的某些特定原因前没有明确地或系统地考虑模型选择的问题。
在这一章中，我们首先使用两种主要的模型选择和模型平均方法，即贝叶斯模型平均方法和自动化的一般到具体的方法，以研究实际人均GDP增长率和大范围潜在解释性变量之间的关联，包括收入初始水平、固定资本形成、人力资本形成、人口增长、开放程度、制度变化、行业变化、金融发展、基础设施和地区优势。被这些程序标记为重要的变量在我们制定基准模型时会被用到。而我们使用面板数据“系统广义矩量法”（GMM）估计我们的基准模型以设法解决缺省变量、内生性和回归量的测量误差问题。被选中的模型的稳健性和主要变量的作用将会在第6章和第7章中被研究。前者集中于增长的直接决定因素，后者集中于根本因素。
5.2节解释我们的实证方法论并证明它的合理性。5.3节讨论数据集并提供概要统计。在5.4节我们报告模型选择结果。在5.5节我们报告基准方程的设定和结果。5.6节概括并给出结论。
本章是一个技术性的章节，提供了具体的方法论，为接下来两章的分析创造了条件。因为该方法论已经通过了一个同行评审期刊出版物（Ding和Knight2011）的检验，愿意信任其技术性细节的读者可能想要集中精力于5.6节的结论部分。
5.2方法论
我们利用相关文献以解释和证实我们的方法论。这关系到非正式增长回归的选择、处理模型不稳定性的方法和面板数据估计方法。我们由解释为什么我们选择采用非正式增长回归方法开始。
在第4章的跨经济体分析中我们发现由人力资本和结构变化共同扩大的索洛模型为中国的惊人的增长绩效提供了一个相当好的解释。再者，五个因素——自低收入水平的条件收敛、高物质资本形成、高水平的人力资本、远离农业的快速结构变化和缓慢的人口增长——对中国相对增长的成功做出了主要贡献。这些指标为现在的跨省分析做好了准备。但是，这类结构性增长模型可能会遗漏一些增长的根本原因。至少这些变量中有一些能够被加入非正式增长回归中。关于中国的跨省增长回归的文献有很多，涉及两种实证方法：或者是某种新古典增长模型，常常是Mankiw、Romer和Weil（1992）（下文中简称为MRW）开发的扩大的索洛模型的形式，或者是包含了该研究者很感兴趣的解释性变量和其他变量的非正式增长回归2。这些文献分析了不同的时间段，虽然大多数限于自1978年的经济改革时期，而且分析方法复杂度也不同（从跨行业OLS到面板数据GMM分析）。这些研究覆盖了大范围的与中国省份之间增长差异有关的因素，例如收敛或发散、物质和人力资本投资、开放性、经济改革、地理位置、基础设施、金融发展、劳动力市场发展、空间依赖和优惠政策。3但所有研究中的一个潜在的问题是难于建立因果关系，而不仅仅把它们关联起来。
……

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