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Jingdong book

失衡的巨龙:中国经济的寓言和预言

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房价高涨!贸易顺差超大!消费不断萎缩!中国经济失衡是无法扭转的“绝症”,还是成长路上的必然?
Content Description

房价高涨,出口占GDP比重过大,贸易顺差过高,储蓄率居高不下……这些都指向一点,即中国的经济结构是失衡的,甚至成为“国际经济麻烦制造者”。那么,中国经济结构真的失衡了吗?
《失衡的巨龙:中国经济的寓言和预言》通过缜密的分析和开阔的国际对比告诉我们,上述的这些不平衡很大程度上是经济迅速增长的“并发症”。这些问题在高速发展时期的日本、韩国及一些东南亚国家和地区中一样出现过。而这些问题,可能即将到达它的顶峰。中国经济的失衡不是“绝症”,而是“成长的烦恼”,发展中的问题可以在发展中得到解决。《失衡的巨龙:中国经济的寓言和预言》由傅勇编著。
Author Description

傅勇,复旦大学中国经济研究中心(CCES)博士,现供职于中国人民银行上海总部。从事宏观经济和金融领域的研究工作。同时还担任浙江财经学院农村金融研究所兼职研究员,中国金融40人·青年论坛成员。《经济研究》、《经济学(季刊)》、《金融研究》、《世界经济》、《世界经济文汇》、《南方经济》等杂志匿名审稿人,《上海金融》杂志特约评论员。
主要兴趣领域为宏观经济、公共财政和货币政策等。近年来,在《经济研究》、《金融研究》、《管理世界》、《世界经济》、《财贸经济》、《经济学家》、《经济社会体制比较》、《国际经济评论》等国内外学术刊物发表论文50余篇,多篇论文被《新华文摘》、《人大复印资料》全文转载,在《光明日报》、《解放日报》、《文汇报》等及主流财经媒体发表经济专论、专栏散文数百篇。出版专著《中国式分权与地方政府行为:探寻转变发展模式的制度性框架》(复旦大学出版社2010年)。2010年“第三届张培刚发展经济学优秀论文奖”获得者。
Comments

对于想要理解中国经济的人来说,坊间流传的大量杂音让人无所适从——到底什么才是保持经济更强、更公平和可持续增长的最佳政策?我们需要的是对数据的精深理解而不是道听途说,以及对现实世界如何运转进行仔细可靠的剖析。这样做也许不太夺人眼球,但却是更佳政策的指引。傅勇的文章正是如此。不管是深入探究日本经验。指出日元升值并非日本经济泡沫或崩溃的根由,抑或是主张当前应有更为公平的收入分配以激发明天的消费,或者是呼吁更具智慧的城市化模式,他的分析都清醒理智,引人入胜,清晰流畅,很值得一读。
——王志浩(StephenGreen)伦敦政治经济学院博士渣打银行大中华区研究主管首席经济学家

中国经济发展模式非常独特,不是任何一个经济体的翻版,但它的未来将会怎样,机会与风险在哪里?这些都太具有探究价值了。本书作者是年轻而富有才气的学者,他独到的探索能给你带来启发,拓宽你的视野。
——李迅雷 国泰君安证券总经济师 首席经济学家 中国金融四十人论坛成员

伴随着经济的快速成长,中国经济、社会中涌现出诸多重大而令人困惑的现象和问题。本书不仅对这些现象和问题做了深入浅出的探讨和分析,还从独特视角解答了一系列困惑,乃至澄清了一些广为流传的谬误。
——洪葭管 研究员 中国金融学会金融史专业委员会主任 中国金融史学的开拓者与奠基人

经济学知识之深奥使其有远离大众的趋势,而经济现象却在每个寻常人的身边。因此,特别需要有学者在经济学研究与公众的认知之间架起桥梁,本书的作者就是在做这样的努力。只有基于扎实的研究,才能传播正确的知识,为此,经济学家仍需共同努力。
——陆铭 复旦大学经济学教授 博士生导师

在中美两国工作多年,总觉得经济范式的巨大差异远远超出宏观数据所提供的简单对比。此书帮助我解开了一些对经济问题由来已久的疑惑。凭借在经济学理论方面的扎实功底,作者将看似繁杂的经济现象给出一以贯之的诠释,行文流畅,令人信服,绝非目前学界、出版界许多拾人牙慧之作所能比拟。
——罗鼐 野村证券(亚洲)有限公司 固定收益部副总监
Catalogue

序中国经济结构真的失衡了吗?
导读
第一部分
经济模式之辩——失衡的巨龙:寓言还是预言?
导言
中印经济的增长寓言
从哪里解开中国的高储蓄之谜?
如何应对中国经济“成长的烦恼”?
你好,刘易斯拐点
中国失去出口,经济将会怎样?
供给为何没能创造自己的需求?
结构调整的金融深化抓手
公务员“热”的“冷”思考
用幸福指数取代国内生产总值能否更幸福?
市场化改革与收入公平:一项经济调查的启示
当心政府的企业家精神
中国经济为何失衡?
梦想比现实更重要?
中国城镇化:南张楼模式,还是龙港模式?
谁是全球经济麻烦的制造者?
罗马不是一日建成的
第二部分
宏观经济之间——高增长低通胀:馅饼还是陷阱?
导言
经济的问题,还是经济学的问题?
自由贸易像天堂,都想去,但都不想去得太早
管制能管出和谐物价吗?
马尔萨斯幽灵重回地球?
“窖藏”转换:流动性是如何过剩的
中国在输出通胀吗?
金融史脱去黄金储备的神秘色彩
如何才能阻止鸡的死亡?
消费者物价指数应该包括房价吗?
适度通胀有好处
中美经济刺激方案最好互换
中国会加入高通胀俱乐部吗?
灾难经济学的灾难
靠“动物精神”实现泡沫化生存?
1.5万亿美元的豪赌?
高油价、国际福利分配与宏观经济理论演进
美国国债膨胀会诱发全球通胀吗?
农业补贴的政治经济学
美国感冒,新兴经济体打喷嚏
欧央行十年未解的悬念
“去全球化”危机考验中国智慧
微型滞涨魅影浮现
黄金盔甲掩盖下的人性弱点
韩国镜像中的中国金融转型
第三部分
货币政策之思——动荡岁月:面纱还是权杖?
导言
央行救市应把握最后贷款人角色之度
次贷危机探源:太阳黑子还是政治需要?
货币政策战争
美联储能成功吗?
货币政策与多难兴邦
谁动了越南的货币?
为什么大萧条没有再次发生?
人民币汇率纷争的学术注脚
利率平价并非我国货币政策之锚
印钞机加班,企业未必加班
东亚模式与人民币国际化
比印钞票更猛烈的货币政策
人民币重估的谜底
靠什么逃脱“危机—刺激—泡沫”的宿命?
全球复苏分化、退出博弈与我国货币政策选择
人民币升值进程中的两个误解
用升值解决中国的环境问题?
后记
Book Abstract

与中国经济发展相伴随的重要特征之一是居民储蓄率的迅速攀升。近年来,国家开征了20%的利息税,即便如此,也未能阻挡中国人高涨的储蓄热情。2009年底,中国储蓄存款总额突破26万亿元,同比增长接近两成。喜欢储蓄对个人来说也许是传统美德,但对一国经济来说却并非总是好消息。在高储蓄引发消费需求不足的同时,与之相连的低利率却刺激着投资,国民经济总供给和总需求的矛盾因而极难平衡,犹如行走于狭窄的刀锋之上。另外,不断累积的存贷差也在银行业形成令人担忧的低效率和金融风险。
高储蓄问题的重要性要求认知的准确性和科学性。在目前的讨论中仍存在一些不妥甚至错误之处,不过现代消费理论为我们提供了一个理解中国高储蓄模式的有效视角。
未富高储?
储蓄是指国内生产总值中没有被消费(以及没有被政府购买和用于出口)掉的部分,按主体可分为家庭储蓄、企业储蓄和政府储蓄,前两者合称私人储蓄。其中,家庭储蓄是缴纳税收之后可支配收人中扣掉消费剩下的部分,家庭高储蓄是人们关注的焦点。
中国的高储蓄现象源于其与经济发展阶段的强烈反差。一方面,从人均国内生产总值看,中国仍是属于中等偏下收入国家。另一方面,20世纪90年代以来的中国居民储蓄率一直处于25%左右的高位。这与人们的直觉相悖:富裕家庭的储蓄倾向(消费倾向)通常高于(低于)收入水平较低的家庭。因为当一个家庭收入很低时,仍然有一部分支出是必需的,结果只能将余下的用于储蓄,随着家庭收入的提高,家庭收入中用于储蓄的比重也会增加。这在经济学中称为边际消费(储蓄)倾向递减(增)规律。亚当·斯密说过,对一个家庭成立的道理,对一个国家大概也能成立。因而,人均收人较低的国家,储蓄率通常要低于人均收入较高的国家。
进一步来看,1960-1970年,囊括高收入国家的OECD(经济合作与发展组织)的平均储蓄率只有14.8%,与中国相去甚远。经常拿来与中国比较的是美国。亚洲金融危机之前,美国的居民储蓄率为4%~5%,其中1990-1994年略高为7.%,但自1999年以来美国的居民储蓄率开始大幅下降,甚至变成负值,2005年三季度的储蓄率为-1.6%,富裕的美国家庭过着可谓是寅吃卯粮的生活。总之,世界上最大的发展中国家和最大的发达国家在储蓄上的差异令人震撼。
习惯了存钱不花?
人们面对这种反差通常的反应是,将这些难以理解的现象归结为社会习俗和文化传统的差异,即东方文化崇尚节俭而西方文化鼓励冒险。这是一种很方便的做法,并且东亚的经验事实貌似也为这种观点提供了支撑。因为日本、韩国和新加坡等儒家文化圈的国家,都(曾)是高储蓄的主要发生国。
问题是,这种看法却无法解释日本储蓄率的近期下降以及其他有着类似文化基础的亚洲国家“正常”的储蓄率。更令人惊讶的是,回顾战后中国居民储蓄的变化,我们可以发现从20世纪50年代至70年代中期,“节俭”的中国居民并非高储蓄者,其平均储蓄率不足5%!这是一个被普遍忽视的事实。其实要对人们行为作出逻辑一致的解释,就不能借助于人们的偏好不同,而应该具体分析是什么样的不同约束导致了同是追求效用最大化的行为人却有着不同的储蓄表现。
另一种误解是,试图通过区分储蓄总量和人均储蓄来说明中国高储蓄的现实。这种观点认为,虽然中国的储蓄总量惊人,但是如果不做加法而是做除法,居民26万亿元的储蓄存款,平均到每个居民也仅能分得2万余元。莫说与中国香港居民的储蓄额相比有天壤之别(国际上从来没有研究者说香港居民的储蓄率过高),与低储蓄率的美国相比也相去甚远。
我们说中国储蓄高固然有储蓄总量的意思,但实质是指高储蓄率。虽然,中国的人均储蓄和发达国家不在一个重量级上,但是,储蓄率(储蓄/可支配收入)却远远高于工业化国家。我们看到,美国的经济规模是中国的6倍,但是美国的储蓄存款还不到中国的2倍,这才是中国高储蓄问题的真正所指。
最后需要澄清的是储蓄(率)的概念。储蓄(率)是一个与国内生产总值一样必须在一定时期内计算的概念。就宏观经济学术语来说,储蓄是流量的概念,而不是存量的概念。在当前的讨论中,通常是以居民存款余额来衡量的,这是个存量概念,它虽然能够提供一定的信息,但并不准确。另外,由于中国家庭可供选择的投资途径并不多,银行存款固然是储蓄的主要形式,但是其他的无形资产包括现金、股票和国债等也是储蓄的形式,并且储蓄存款还忽视了有形资产(其中最重要的是住房)的增加量。再有,考虑储蓄(率)更科学的方式是剔除通货膨胀以后的实际储蓄,这也是用存款余额来定义储蓄(率)所忽视的重要问题。
……

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Sellers in China will ship their orders within 1-2 business days once the order is placed. Packages are sent to our consolidation warehouse in China and combined there. Our Yami consolidation warehouse will directly ship the packages to you via UPS. The average time for UPS to ship from China to the United States is about 10 working days and it can be traced using the tracking number. Due to the pandemic, the delivery time may be delayed by about 5 days. The package needs to be signed by the guest. If the receipt is not signed, the customer shall bear the risk of loss of the package.

Sold by JD@CHINA

Service Guarantee

Free shipping over 69
Genuine guarantee

Shipping

Yami Consolidated Shipping $9.99(Free shipping over $69)


Seller will ship the orders within 1-2 business days. The logistics time limit is expected to be 7-15 working days. In case of customs clearance, the delivery time will be extended by 3-7 days. The final receipt date is subject to the information of the postal company.

Yami Points information

All items are excluding from any promotion or points events on Yamibuy.com

Return Policy

You may return product within 30 days upon receiving the product. Items returned must be new in it's original packing, including the original invoice for the purchase. Customer return product at their own expense.

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About the brand

Jingdong book

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About the brand

Jingdong book