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应用中级宏观经济学/经济科学译丛 “十一五”国家重点图书出版规划项目

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应用中级宏观经济学/经济科学译丛 “十一五”国家重点图书出版规划项目

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《应用中级宏观经济学/经济科学译丛 “十一五”国家重点图书出版规划项目》提供的是中级水平应用宏观经济学方面的一本完整教程,强调经济理论对于现实世界的数据和政策的应用。
《应用中级宏观经济学/经济科学译丛 “十一五”国家重点图书出版规划项目》所涵盖的话题包括国民收入账户和国际收入与金融账户、经济周期、金融市场、经济增长、劳动力市场、总供给和总需求、通货膨胀以及货币和财政政策。
《应用中级宏观经济学/经济科学译丛 “十一五”国家重点图书出版规划项目》的独特之处在于,它为经济数据创建了一个初级统计学和画图技巧方面的详细的工具箱。
《应用中级宏观经济学/经济科学译丛 “十一五”国家重点图书出版规划项目》的一大优势就是对国内和国际金融市场以及货币和财政政策机构的详细论述,这就特别有助于理解最近所发生的经济危机。
Author Description

凯文·D·胡佛,是美国杜克大学经济学和哲学教授。他毕业于威廉与玛丽学院,获得了英国牛津大学的博士学位。早在美国旧金山联邦储备银行工作期间,他就对应用宏观经济学产生了兴趣。在迁往杜克大学之前,胡佛在英国牛津大学和美国加利福尼亚大学戴维斯分校讲授经济学。其著作有:《新古典宏观经济学》(1988)、《宏观经济学中的因果关系》(剑桥大学出版社,2001)、《经验宏观经济学方法论》(剑桥大学出版社,2001)。此外,他还主编了9本书。撰写了有关宏观经济学、货币经济学、经济计量学、经济学的哲学和方法论以及经济思想史方面的学术论文100余篇。他是经济方法的国际网络(INEM)的原主席、经济学史社团原主席,以及《经济方法论杂志》的前任编辑之一。目前,他是《政治经济史》杂志的主编以及杜克大学政治经济史中心的成员。
Catalogue

第一篇导论

第1章 宏观经济学与现实世界
1.1 宏观经济学研究的问题
1.2 什么是宏观经济学
1.3 研究宏观经济学
1.4 我们往何处去?
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习
第二篇国民账户

第2章 国民账户与经济结构
2.1 经济有多大?
2.2 GDP与经济过程
2.3 国民会计恒等式
2.4 真实国内生产总值
2.5 较长时期内的GDP
2.6 衡量通货膨胀
2.7 经济行为和国民账户:总需求和供给——后面章节的引子
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习

第3章 理解GDP
3.1 何谓最终产品?
3.2 产出和收入
3.3 国内生产总值与国民生产总值
3.4 折旧和净产值
3.5 局限、判断和迷惑
3.6 GDP的衡量
3.7 汇总:解读国民收入和产出账户
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习

第4章 衡量价格与通货膨胀
4.1 构建价格指数
4.2 其他价格指数
4.3 核心通货膨胀
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习
第三篇趋势与周期

第5章 趋势与周期
5.1 时间序列分解
5.2 经济周期
5.3 经济周期与经济
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习
第四篇金融市场

第6章 金融体系
6.1 金融体系和实体经济
6.2 估价的原则
6.3 主要金融工具
6.4 金融市场和总需求
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习

第7章 利率行为
7.1 关于利率的5个问题
7.2 金融资产市场
7.3 风险
7.4 利率的期限结构
7.5 通货膨胀和利率
7.6 真实利率水平
7.7 重新讨论关于利率的五个问题
附录:LM曲线
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习

第8章 国际金融系统与收支账户
8.1 全球经济
8.2 收支账户基础知识
8.3 汇率基础知识
8.4 外汇市场和金融市场
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习
第五篇总供给

第9章 总量生产
9.1 厂商的生产决策
9.2 总供给
9.3 生产率
9.4 短期和长期总供给
9.5 潜在产出
9.6 总供给:所回答的问题,所提出的问题
本章小结
关键概念
课后练习

第10章 经济增长
10.1 增长为什么重要?
10.2 对增长进行核算
10.3 经济增长的源泉
10.4 新古典增长模型
10.5 什么因素导致国别增长差异?
10.6 经济增长:成就与前景
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习

第11章 理想的劳动力市场
11.1 劳动需求
11.2 劳动供给
11.3 劳动力市场均衡
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习

第12章 失业与劳动力市场过程
12.1 就业和失业概念
12.2 劳动力市场的衡量:理论和实践
12.3 劳动力市场变化过程
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习
第六篇总需求

第13章 总需求导论
13.1 总需求的一个简单模型
13.2 财政政策
13.3 投资和总需求
13.4 总需求与经常账户
13.5 对总需求管理的限制
附录:IS-LM模型
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习

第14章 消费和投资:进一步研究
14.1 简单消费函数与现实世界
14.2 永久收入/生命周期假说
14.3 借贷约束、经验法则与消费
14.4 从资产的视角看资本和投资
14.5 总投资
本章小结
关键概念
课后练习
第七篇宏观经济的动态学

第15章 产出,失业和通货膨胀的动态关系
15.1 总供给和总需求的相互作用
15.2 失业和产出波动
15.3 通货膨胀和失业
15.4 需求管理局限的再分析
15.5 总供给和总需求:综合讨论
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习第八篇宏观经济政策

第16章 货币政策
16.1 货币政策和财政政策
16.2 美联储和银行系统
16.3 货币政策的机会成本或利率渠道
16.4 信贷渠道
16.5 货币政策的实施与局限
16.6 货币政策和国际金融
附录20世纪80年代的货币主义实验:IS-LM分析的一个应用
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习

第17章 财政政策
17.1 反周期的财政政策
17.2 长期内的财政政策
17.3 债务负担
17.4 总结:再论功能财政
本章小结
关键概念
延伸阅读建议
课后练习
第九篇宏观经济数据
经济数据使用指南
G.1 经济数据
G.2 图表
G.3 创建好的表格指南
G.4 描述性统计学
G.5 从描述性统计量中作出推断
G.6 正态分布
G.7 第Ⅰ类误差与第Ⅱ类误差
G.8 使用指数
G.9 真实量和名义量
G.10 增长率
G.11 对数
G.12 去趋势
G.13 相关关系和因果关系
G.14 平稳时间序列和非平稳时间序列的关系
G.15 回归
G.16 柯布-道格拉斯生产函数
延伸阅读建议
符号
词汇表

译后记
Book Abstract

《应用中级宏观经济学/经济科学译丛 “十一五”国家重点图书出版规划项目》:
对任何反事实实验,重要的是要注意,我们改变了哪些事实,或者必须允许它们改变,原因是它们是内生变量,以及哪些事实保持不变。在第一个反事实实验中,GDP下降,我们把这个方程式本身看作不变的(尤其是它的斜率即参数0.95)。但是,我们不能在改变GDP的同时使内生变量C保持不变。在第二个反事实实验中,参数下降,我们保持GDP不变。
改变一个事物而让其他事物保持不变,这样做的意义是为了单独考虑被改变的事物的特殊影响。这一做法非常普遍,以至于经济学家常常使用“ceterisparibus”这句希腊语,意为“其他条件不变”,来解释他们的反事实实验的性质。①在第二个实验中,我们可能会问:“如果其他条件不变,我们把参数从0.95降低到0.80,会发生什么情况?”那么我们知道,我们应该使所有其他参数、外生变量以及函数关系保持不变,只允许这一个参数和外生变量发生变化。
经济学家常常使用一些特殊类型的反事实实验:
无条件预测。考虑将方程式(1.2)单独看作GDP模型,假设我们知道2010年的GDP是1000,随机误差项是100,那么我们就能够对未来的GDP进行预测:Y2011=1100;Y2012=1070;Y2013=1049;Y2014=1034;……Y2025=1000。因为我们没有可以预测未来的水晶球,无法知道未来的误差是多少,为了作出这个预测,我们假设未来的误差项为零。如果我们的模型是对的,这个结果通常是正确的。由于未来有误差存在,我们不期望这个预测非常精确。相反,这个模型产生了一个反事实预测,告诉我们如果未来没有误差存在,会发生什么情况;它还告诉我们,如果未来的误差符合模型并且平均而言相互抵消,一般会发生什么情况。由于我们只让模型包括现有事实,然后对它们进行分析,在这个意义上我们的预测是无条件的。
有条件预测。假设我们想了解,如果GDP每年增长10%,消费会发生什么变化。如果2010年GDP为1000,那么我们可以猜测出以后几年中它的增加情况:Y=1100;1210;1331;……如果我们用方程式(1.1)来构建消费模型,那么消费将遵循如下路径:从2010年开始:C=950;1150;1264;……这是有条件预测,因为我们认为,只有在关于GDP路径的假设证明是正确的这个前提下,关于消费的预测才是正确的。例如,如果在2012年,我们发现GDP事实上是1250,而不是1331,消费事实上是1188,不是1264,那么我们的预测就是错误的,但这并不能说明模型(1.1)是错误的:错进,错出。但是,如果GDP被证明正好就是所预测的值(1331),实际的消费也恰好就是1150,这一结果对模型并不利;同样,如果GDP与预测结果不符(比如是1500),而消费也不符合模型(比如是1200,而不是1425),这个结果也对模型不利。
……

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