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Jingdong book

破解中国经济发展之谜

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Books Economy China Economy

Jingdong book

破解中国经济发展之谜

Name: 破解中国经济发展之谜
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110201511
Price: 41.43 USD
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《破解中国经济发展之谜》作者以简洁活泼的语言，阐明了中国经济高速增长和居民收入整体提高的谜底在于中国共产党自十一届三中全会以来全力推动的改革开放这一基本国策，在于中国共产党改善人民生活水平的强烈愿望和人民群众为此作出的实践探索。

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Content Description

《破解中国经济发展之谜》解释为什么中国的改革开放可以成功地推动高速经济增长，以事实描述和经济学分析的逻辑，简述中国过去的30余年里，成功的发展使人民生活和社会福利水平得到前所未有改善的历史。根据经济发展中出现的新情况，对中国经济发展阶段及面临的新挑战做出判断，提出通过改革获得制度红利，保持经济持续增长，跨越中等收入阶段，实现向高收入阶段过渡的路径。《破解中国经济发展之谜》在揭示中国经验特色的同时，归纳其对于其他发展中国家的一般借鉴意义。针对“中国崩溃论”、“中国威胁论”及其他国内国际流行的认识误区，用中国经验和国际比较的事实予以澄清。《破解中国经济发展之谜》采用经济学的规范分析方法，以经济发展逻辑为主线，以通俗易懂的语言风格讲述中国经济奇迹，尝试用中国经验丰富经济发展理论。

Author Description

蔡昉，男，1956年生。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国社会科学院研究生院。经济学博士。中共十八大代表；第十二届全国人大常委会委员、农业与农村委员会委员；中国社会科学院学部委员、人口与劳动经济研究所所长。兼任中国人口学会副会长、国家规划专家委员会委员、世界经济论坛全球议程老龄化理事会成员、英国皇家学会人与地球工作组成员等。近年获得中国软科学奖、张培刚发展经济学奖和孙冶方经济科学奖等。专著《中国经济》、《避免中等收入陷阱》等，主编《中国经济转型30年》等。

Catalogue

第一章三十年仁政乃成
1.1 人均收入的翻番
1.2 世界性减贫范例
1.3 中国特色“三农”政策
1.4 社会保护从无到有
1.5 不平衡的包容式发展

第二章发展是硬道理
2.1 “风景这边独好”
2.2 “中国崩溃论”
2.3 迄今的增长源泉
2.4 走向科学发展
2.5 转变经济发展方式

第三章改革是根本动力
3.1 改革的逻辑
3.2 激励机制与治理模式
3.3 市场竞争环境
3.4 发展型政府

第四章全球化与中国因素
4.1 全球化的含义
4.2 赶超与趋同
4.3 打破供给“瓶颈”
4.4 是“为人作嫁说”吗？
4.5 大国效应
4.6 “雁阵”还是“巨龙”

第五章发展阶段与转折点
5.1 经济发展阶段
5.2 中国经济转折点
5.3 认识宏观经济形势
5.4 “中等收入陷阱”？
5.5 中国式应对

第六章可持续增长引擎
6.1 从供给因素着眼
6.2 劳动生产率
6.3 资本劳动比
6.4 全要素生产率

第七章延续人口红利
7.1 未来的就业挑战
7.2 教育可能过度吗？
7.3 应对未富先老

第八章实现包容性增长
8.1 提高劳动参与率
8.2 城市化的核心
8.3 农业当自立

第九章挖掘制度红利
9.1 打破政府悖论
9.2 拆除配置障碍
9.3 患寡，也患不均
9.4 社会保护不是负激励

第十章拥抱伟大复兴
10.1 “李约瑟之谜”
10.2 两个“百年目标”
10.3 中国版“收入倍增计划”
10.4 现代化的含义
10.5 爬坡与攻关

Book Abstract

不同国家在类似发展阶段上，人均收入翻一番所需要的时间：英国在1780—1838年花了58年，美国在1839—1886年花了47年，日本在1885—1919年花了34年，韩国在1966—1977年花了11年，而中国在1978—1987年只用了9年的时间，随后又在1987—1995年和1995—2004年分别用8年和9年的时间再次两度翻番，并于2011年再翻一番，而这一次只用了7年时间。

劳伦斯·萨默斯是个不拘小节的经济学奇才（省略号）他认为，300年后，当人们书写我们今天的历史，可能不会记得冷战的结束，不会记得“9·11”事件，而必然大书特书的是，中国因其高速经济增长，在人类历史上第一次做到，在一个人的生命周期内生活水平可以提高100倍以上，及其对世界上其他人和全球经济带来的重要影响。

在中国加入WTO以后，中美贸易规模明显扩大的同时，美国以国家安全为名继续实施对华出口限制，造成两国巨大的贸易不平衡。中美两国处在科技发展的不同阶段，对中国出口高科技产品限制变本加厉，明显背离了比较优势原理，美国对华贸易逆差无疑是自己造成的。

事实上，2012年消费需求、投资需求和出口需求对GDP增长率的贡献，分别为4.04个百分点、3.93个百分点和-0.17个百分点。而从2001—2011年期间的平均水平看，大体上三者的贡献率分别为4.5个百分点、5.4个百分点和0.56个百分点。即使在未来一段时期内，外需贡献为零，投资需求减半，消费需求保持不变，需求因素也足以支撑潜在增长率的要求。

根据人力资本回报率来判读高校扩招是否盲目，或者回答过去十余年高等教育的大众化进程导致教育过度的问题，是简单且直截了当的。无论是使用扩招前的数据还是扩招后的数据，计量经济学研究都表明，高等教育比较低教育阶段的回报率更高。例如，李宏彬发现，在1999年高校扩招后，拥有大学专科以上文凭的雇员，平均工资高于高中毕业生雇员的幅度继续提供，2009年达到49%之高。

局部调查发现，仅因官方统计系统的住户调查抽样和定义中存在的问题，就导致城镇居民可支配收入平均被高估13.6%，农村居民纯收入平均被低估13.3%，城乡收入差距平均被高估了31.2%。

地方政府之间进行增长竞赛，也倾向于低估资源环境成本，导致经济增长所得难以补偿其造成的资源枯竭和环境破坏代价。劳动力价格虽然已经由市场决定，但是，由于户籍制度等体制障碍的存在，农民工没有享受到均等的基本公共服务，社会保险的覆盖率很低，加上部分企业故意规避执行最低工资制度等劳动法规，也造成劳动力成本被人为压低。而地方政府之间竞争的热情，则成为阻碍户籍制度改革的一个内在动机。

虽然一般认为，日本经济在1960年到达其出现劳动力短缺和工资上涨现象的刘易斯转折点，但是，以劳动年龄人口停止增长、人口抚养比开始上升为标志的人口红利消失的转折点，直到20世纪90年代初才发生。而就这两个转折点的时间间隔来说，中国的未富先老特征呈现出不同的表现，即在2004年到达刘易斯转折点之后，仅仅花了短短数年时间，即在2013年中断了15—64岁劳动年龄人口的增长。如果从中国的国情出发，选取15—59岁人口作为劳动年龄人口的话，则在2010年到达峰值之后，已经开始了显著的下降过程。

……

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