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Jingdong book

中国货币政策中介目标选择研究

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Jingdong book

中国货币政策中介目标选择研究

Name: 中国货币政策中介目标选择研究
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110221781
Price: 41.49 USD
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在我国经济转型和演进的过程中，货币政策中介目标的有效性决定了货币政策的传导效果，两者紧密联系。在当前*球经济复苏疲软、国内经济下行压力增大的背景下，我国货币政策需要应对的国内外经济环境日趋复杂，货币政策传导的有效性愈显重要。本书从货币政策的传导机制理论出发，梳理了不同历史时期下我国货币政策中介目标的适用性，并定量检验了不同货币政策中介目标下传导机制的有效性，分析了货币政策从数量型向价格型转变的内在逻辑，为我国下一阶段货币政策中介目标的选择提供理论和实证依据。同时，本书还讨论了部分国家已经采用的通货膨胀目标制在我国的适用程度，并与我国当前的货币政策制度作了对比。

Author Description

张搏，男，1983年生，湖北人。法国里昂高等商学院和法国巴黎*一大学双硕士，华中科技大学理论经济学博士，2016年3月华中科技大学应用经济学博士后流动站出站。现任职于中国农业银行总行。主要从事宏观经济和金融市场方面的研究。在《金融研究》、《经济学动态》、《经济学家》等期刊上发表《在华外资银行分层区位战略及影响因素研究》等论文数篇。

Catalogue

第一章

绪论

第一节货币政策及其目标概述

第二节国外与国内研究状况

一、国外研究状况

二、国内研究状况

第三节本书研究思想、研究方法及创新点

第二章

我国的货币政策传导机制

第一节货币政策传导机制理论

一、国外的理论综述

二、国内研究状况综述

第二节货币政策传导机制的相关要素

一、货币政策传导机制的主体

二、货币政策传导机制的主要影响因素

三、货币政策传导的过程

第三节货币政策传导途径的种类

一、利率传导机制

二、货币供应量传导机制

三、资产价格传导机制

四、汇率传导机制

五、信贷传导机制

六、货币政策的成本传导途径

第四节货币政策传导的不确定性

第五节我国货币政策传导的复杂性

第三章

货币供应量中介目标的适用性

第一节货币中性与非中性之争

一、古典经济学派的货币中性论

二、新古典学派的货币中性论

三、货币非中性论

第二节关于货币供应量的实证检验

第三节货币供应量中介目标在我国的理论研究

第四节货币供应量、通货膨胀率与产出

一、最优货币量与通货膨胀

二、货币供应量与短期产出

第五节货币供应量的传导途径

一、货币供应量在政策传导中的投资渠道

二、货币供应量在政策传导中的消费渠道

第六节我国的货币供应量实证检验

一、我国CPI的构成对通货膨胀率的影响

二、我国的货币供应量与物价水平

和实际产出水平

三、我国货币流通速度以及狭义和广义货币乘数

四、货币供应量作为中介目标的检验

第四章

利率中介目标的适用性

第一节利率作为中介目标的历史回顾

第二节利率中介目标的理论综述

一、国外研究综述

二、国内研究综述

第三节泰勒规则及其扩展形式

一、泰勒规则的原始模型

二、泰勒规则的扩展形式

第四节我国的利率市场化改革

一、利率决定理论

二、利率市场化改革理论

三、利率市场化在我国的改革经历

第五节利率作为中介目标适用性检验

一、泰勒规则在我国的检验

二、利率的传导机制检验

第六节利率中介对我国货币政策的适用性分析

第五章

汇率中介目标的适用性

第一节实际汇率目标制

一、购买力平价理论

二、实际汇率目标制的理论研究

第二节汇率目标区理论

一、克鲁格曼的汇率目标区间理论

二、汇率目标区理论的扩展

第三节汇率的传导机制

第四节我国汇率目标制的研究

第五节我国的汇率制度改革

一、我国汇率制度改革的历史阶段

二、我国汇率改革面临的问题

第六节汇率中介目标的适用性检验

一、数据的选择

二、跨期动态相关图

三、单方程回归检验

四、ADF检验

五、协整检验

六、VAR检验

七、格兰杰因果检验

第七节汇率中介对我国货币政策适用性判断

第六章

我国货币政策中介目标选择

第一节通货膨胀目标制

一、通货膨胀目标制的发展历史

二、通货膨胀目标制的内涵

第二节我国货币政策中介目标选择的建议

参考文献

后记

Introduction

我国正处于一个向经济新常态变革的时代。习近平总书记明确了新常态的基本特征：从高速增长转为中高速增长，经济结构不断优化升级，从要素驱动、投资驱动转向创新驱动。经济新常态需要货币政策也要满足新常态的要求：利率调控仍是关键，但总量型和结构型的数量工具也不可或缺；汇率政策必不可少，但汇率目标与利率目标的相互牵制明显增强。在蒙代尔三角的约束下，新常态的中国货币政策表现出不同于以往的运行机制和操作效用：一是过去所谓的有管理的浮动汇率制更接近固定汇率制，而目前的有管理的浮动汇率制更加名副其实；二是过去利率与汇率基本独立，而现在需要两者相互协调；三是资本项目开放程度不同，资本项目短期内尽管不可能全面开放，但是逐步放宽限制已成必然趋势。总体来看，中国货币政策采用“独立的货币政策+部分资本流动+有管理的浮动汇率制度”这一不可能三角中的内部解是可行的。

货币政策中介目标作为货币政策框架中的重要一环，需要为央行制定合理的货币政策提供有效信息，因此选取能够客观反映经济运行状况和货币政策实施状况的中介目标对于成功实现货币政策最终目标来说至关重要。20世纪90年代末，中国人民银行根据金融宏观调控需要主动取消贷款规模管理，实现了我国货币政策调控框架的第一次重大转型，即从以直接调控为主转变为以间接调控为主，并逐渐形成了以广义货币（M2）为中介目标、以维持物价稳定为最终目标、多种货币政策工具组合运用的数量型为主的货币政策调控框架。但随着我国经济金融的改革发展，特别是随着利率市场化改革的稳步推进，金融产品不断创新，货币需求函数稳定性呈下降趋势，加之货币供应量的增长具有波动性，中央银行难以准确测算M2、货币流通速度及货币乘数等数量指标。在此背景下，为了提高货币政策的调控效率，中国人民银行逐步推动货币政策调控框架从数量型向价格型转变，即在逐步放开存贷款利率管制的同时，不断加强政策利率体系的建设，标志着我国货币政策框架正式进入价格型框架时代。

经济变量是否适合作为货币政策的中介目标，在于其能否客观反映出我国经济运行状况，能否为央行及时提供正确的有助于制定货币政策的经济信息，并且要求其具有较高的可控性和可测性。这要求中介目标的货币政策传导机制必须是有效的，也就是央行可以通过货币政策工具影响到中介目标，进而有效地影响到货币政策最终目标。因此，本书旨在从理论和实证方面，以货币政策传导机制为基础，探讨货币供应量、利率和汇率作为中介目标的适用性。

本书从货币政策传导机制出发，阐述了货币政策传导机制的理论、相关要素，以及具体的传导途径与不确定性，并分析了我国经济环境下货币政策传导途径的复杂性。在货币供应量中介目标方面，本书探讨了货币的中性与非中性理论，而货币非中性是货币供应量可以作为中介目标的前提条件之一。本书还阐述了货币供应量作为中介目标在我国的理论研究，以及其对通货膨胀和产出的影响，分析了货币供应量的传导途径，并通过实证检验证明了货币供应量仍然可以考虑作为我国货币政策的中介目标。在利率中介目标方面，本书回顾了利率作为中介目标的历史，并且利用扩展式泰勒规则对我国的利率走势做了分析，得出泰勒规则可以比较好地作为预测市场利率的工具，以及利率的传导途径有效等结论，认为利率可以优先考虑作为我国货币政策中介目标，并且在此基础上对我国利率市场化程度作了阐述。在汇率中介目标方面，本书在理论上将实际汇率制和汇率目标区间制做了对比，并对汇率对国际贸易和国与国之间通货膨胀传导作了实证检验，得出汇率不适合作为我国货币政策中介目标的结论。最后，本书讨论了一种最终目标制度——通货膨胀目标制在我国的可行性，认为我国目前仍然需要设定一个合理的中介目标，以帮助央行制定合适的货币政策。因此，本书建议我国采取以利率为主、货币供应量为辅的双中介目标制。而汇率由于无法客观地反映我国的贸易结构，因此不适合作为我国货币政策中介目标。

张搏

2015年11月于北京

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Jingdong book

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