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Jingdong book

郎咸平说:萧条下的希望

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中国当下经济到底怎么了,大家众说纷纭,官员、企业家和老百姓大多一片迷茫。郎咸平教授在本书中明确告诉各位读者:中国经济萧条已经到来,这就是我们今天面临的惨状。萧条也意味着希望,如果没有"次货危机",美国经济就不会像今天这样健康。郎咸平教授经过认真研究和分析认为:政府推动的所谓调整结构,转型升级,其实都是伪命题。政府需要做的是管好自己那只好动的“手”,营造好的营商环境,才该是应该做的。今天的萧条,就是政府造成的。要走出萧条,政府也必须束缚自己那只好动的“手”。郎咸平教授在本书总结道:只有砸碎束缚中国经济发展的十大枷锁,中国改革的的新红利才能实现,中国经济才有走出萧条的希望。

Content Description

《郎咸平说 萧条下的希望》一书的内容设置大体上可以分为五个部分:
一部分是对2013年中国乃到国际形势进行了总结,指出国际形势是由乱到稳,中国经济是由乱到变;
第二部分是中国的具体经济形势进行了归纳,指出萧条已是大势所趋;
第三部分-也是本书较大的亮点,是对束缚中国企业发展的枷锁进行了梳理,具体包括审批、垄断、税费、融资、地价、人才、社会、假货、国际化以及法律枷锁十项;
第四部分是对企业的发展方向进行探讨,具体讲述了李嘉诚的商业布局,家族企业的传承之道;
第五部分以目前我国光伏、工程机械、电子行业、汽车、电信、电子商务、食品加工以及纺织品等主要行业所面临的各种问题和挑战为切入点,在简单叙述表面现象之后,对引发各个现象背后的原因,进行鞭辟入里的分析。
同时,作者在书中还引用了大量的调研数据及真实案例,对于中国企业应对时下的经济危机、寻找经济复苏之路具有指导意义。

Author Description

郎咸平,美国沃顿商学院博士,曾任沃顿商学院、密歇根州立大学、俄亥俄州立大学、纽约大学和芝加哥大学教授,现任香港中文大学金融学客座教授。主要致力于公司监管、项目融资、直接投资、企业重组、兼并与收购、破产等方面的研究。出版的著作有《中国经济到了危险的边缘》、郎咸平说系列、郎咸平案例系列等。在《金融学报》、《金融经济学报》等国际顶端学术期刊发表过大量学术文章。

Catalogue

序言 砸碎束缚中国企业发展的十条枷锁
第一章 2013年的变奏曲:乱、稳和变
第二章 萧条已是大势所趋
第三章 走出萧条的希望:砸碎束缚中国企业发展的十条枷锁
第四章 企业该何去何从
第五章 凄惨的光伏业,还有救吗
第六章 以三一集团为例,走出去的教训与反思
第七章 电子产业路在何方
第八章 汽车产业的出路在哪里
第九章 电信能否挺过4G时代
第十章 电子商务不过是产业链效率的竞争
第十一章 照明行业,时刻警惕产为资本
第十二章 液晶:千亿赌局的局中局
第十三章 食品工业化时代如何应对
第十四章 服装行业还能突围吗
第十五章 金融改革大幕拉开

Book Abstract

一、区域性萧条明显
2013年一季度,温州申请破产的企业数量同比上升了12倍。2012年一年,温州法院受理的企业破产案件27起,平均一个季度大约7起,但是今年一季度法院已经受理了86起。温州某基层法院的陈副院长说,当地濒临倒闭企业至少100~200家,主动申请破产的企业只有5~6家,如果按照5%的申请破产比例计算,温州去年破产的企业约540家,今年一季度已经暴涨到1720家。这还没有计算停产和半停产的企业,以鞋企为例,温州2700多家鞋企中还有800多家处于停产和半停产状态,约占30%。
珠三角地区也不容乐观,官方数据还能看得过去,但第三方做的统计就差距很大了。香港工业总会的数据显示,港资企业两年倒闭30%,2011年,珠三角地区约有7万家港资工厂,2012年底还剩5万家。港台集团是珠三角地区的制鞋巨头,原本有6家鞋厂,自2008年开始陆陆续续关闭了5家,2013年1月又关闭了最后一家。香港工业总会副主席刘展灏预计,到2015年,珠三角地区港资工厂将萎缩到大约3.5万家,再次减少30%。这才是珠三角地区制造业的真实状况。
实际上,温州、珠三角地区的区域性萧条只是整个经济萧条的缩影,放眼其他行业,情况也一样糟糕,造船、光伏先后进入危机,工程机械严重产能过剩,60%的纺织企业零利润。
二、造船业陷入困境
工信部公布的数据显示,2012年全国造船完工量6021万载重吨,同比下降21.4%。2013年跌势还在继续,一季度全国造船完工量945万载重吨,同比下降15.6%;1—6月,全国造船完工量2060万载重吨,同比下降36.0%,80家重点监测企业经济指标全面下降,工业产值同比下降16.6%,出口交货值同比下降24.7%,利润同比下降53.6%,相反应收账款、财务费用、管理费用都在增长。重点监测的都是大企业,能很顺利获得贷款和各项优惠政策,中小船企就更惨了。
全球最大的中小船舶制造业基地在浙江台州,目前约有80%的船企处于停产和半停产状态。中国船舶工业集团原总经理谭作钧预计,有50%的造船厂将在未来2~3年内破产。具体到造船第一大省江苏,今年1—3月份江苏13家重点船企中有4家企业亏损,小一些的造船厂日子更不好过,在列入统计的66家造船企业中有44家企业没有接单。面对困境,银行多次出手相救,以江苏为例,截至2013年2月底,江苏省主要金融机构对重点造船企业的综合授信余额为1070亿元。当时我曾在电视节目中警告大家,给造船业融资看上去确实是雪中送炭,实际上谁也不能保证这不是第二个光伏。果不其然,从今年7月开始,各大银行意识到风险纷纷开始收紧对造船业的贷款,以前只要客户向造船厂支付1%的预付款银行就敢贷款给造船厂,现在至少要支付15%的预付款银行才会考虑发放贷款,具体操作中则可能要达到30%的预付款。
三、钢铁行业问题重重
发改委说“钢铁行业2012年经历了10年来最困难的时刻”。2012年全国有将近三成的钢贸企业倒闭或者退出行业,10月15日至11月15日上海曾有第一波钢贸贷款逼债高潮,当时所有媒体都在报道,其实那段时间起诉一共才27起。大家知道最近的情况吗?“上海法院网”公布的开庭公告信息显示,2013年3月18日至4月17日,仅一个月上海就有209起银行起诉钢贸企业的案件开庭,媒体反而不吭声了。
四、光伏企业危机深重
光伏企业更是不用多说,美国、欧洲部分国家先后对我国的光伏产品征收重税,2013年3月20日全国最大的光伏企业无锡尚德宣布破产,光伏第一大省江苏停产和半停产的企业超过60%,第二大省浙江有96%的企业停产或倒闭。中国光伏产业联盟主席朱共山说:“全国范围内多晶硅行业90%的企业已经停产,如果再持续下去,这个行业将面临全军覆没的危险。”
五、工程机械严重产能过剩,库存高企
以挖掘机为例,全年总销量12万台,产能60多万台,前几年4万亿投资兴起之初还不明显,大家都有饭吃,现在日子却很难过。各大工程机械生产商库存积压严重,花钱租地用来停放没人买的新车,因为害怕停产引起恐慌。徐州市金山桥东、大黄山附近,可以看到徐工集团停放的许多工程机械。徐工集团作为国企还注意影响,不让工人失业回家,民营企业就管不了那么多了,三一重工、玉柴重工都相继传出了裁员的新闻。
查阅徐工集团的年报发现,今年一季度,徐工集团的库存新增5.96亿元,同比增长51%,销售收入同比下滑17%,但应收账款达到204亿元,同比增长54.5%。这说明徐工集团过去一直在大量赊销工程机械,我没有苛责它的意思,因为所有的工程机械企业都是这样。但是这次的行业危机不是一天两天就能过去的。
……

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